BTC Tests Critical $78.3K Support Level While Crude Oil Reaches Three-Month Peak
Analysts are sounding alarms that Bitcoin risks duplicating its unsuccessful May rally as cryptocurrency markets and risk assets decline following intensified military escalation in the Middle East.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped beneath the $78,000 threshold as Wall Street commenced Tuesday's trading session, with risk assets experiencing downward pressure due to escalating Middle East tensions.
Key points:
- For the first time since Sept. 3, Bitcoin momentarily fell below $78,000 amid selling pressure affecting US equity markets.
- WTI crude oil reached three-month peak levels approaching $95 per barrel following new military strikes across the Middle East region.
- Analysts caution that Bitcoin must maintain the $78,300 support level to prevent a scenario similar to its May collapse.
Risk assets and Bitcoin retreat as Middle East conflict drives oil prices higher
According to data from TradingView, BTC/USD touched lows of $77,600 before experiencing a minor recovery, marking the weakest price levels observed since Sept. 3.
Reports of Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabian urban centers and petroleum infrastructure created headwinds for US equity markets as the first post-Labor Day holiday trading session got underway. At the time of publication, the S&P 500 had declined 0.5% while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.4%.
The petroleum market demonstrated a more dramatic response to these developments, with WTI crude climbing toward the $95 per barrel level, representing the highest valuation since June 8. Meanwhile, Brent crude approached the $100 threshold for the first time since July 24.
Addressing a simultaneous record surge in US diesel costs, trading intelligence platform The Kobeissi Letter observed that "inflation expectations continue to mount as a result." According to Cointelegraph's earlier reporting, this trend has been particularly evident in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation measurement scheduled for its next release on Friday.
Through a Truth Social message posted on Monday, US president Donald Trump minimized concerns about the oil price increase, committing to reduced prices going forward.
Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon.
Technical analysis suggests BTC price pattern mirrors unsuccessful May rally
In his examination of the present BTC price movement, trader and analyst Rekt Capital adopted a wary perspective, highlighting similarities to Bitcoin's unsuccessful May breakout attempt.
During that period, BTC/USD climbed to $82,800 before experiencing a reversal, followed by consolidation around $78,300 and an eventual decline to fresh macro lows in the vicinity of $57,000.
"The retest of ~$78300 is now in progress," he noted in a post on X.
If the present support zone proves unable to hold, BTC/USD would establish yet another lower high in a sequence extending back to October 2025, ensuring the continuation of its 2026 bear market conditions.
"Ultimately, a Weekly Close below $78300 followed by a bearish retest just like in early May would likely confirm a breakdown," Rekt Capital argued in separate analysis on X.