Three Key Signals Suggest Altcoin Season May Be 'Silently' Beginning
Early recovery indicators in the altcoin sector—including increased trading volumes, strengthening moving averages, and improved technical patterns—point toward a potential 2026 altseason emergence.
According to cryptocurrency market experts, growing altcoin volumes and performance on Binance, an upward-trending altseason index, and strengthening TOTAL2 macro patterns represent preliminary indicators that the market might transition into an altseason during 2026.
Key takeaways:
- Signals of altcoin recovery surface, suggesting a potential altseason arrival in 2026.
- Increasing altcoin volumes on centralized trading platforms and the AltSeason Index indicate possible capital flow from Bitcoin.
- The altcoin market capitalization chart demonstrates strengthening technical indicators.
Early recovery indicators emerge in altcoin market
According to crypto analyst Darkfost, macroeconomic concerns related to the continuing US and Israel-Iran conflict resulted in the altcoin sector experiencing corrections exceeding 50%.
Nevertheless, the sector seems to be silently "awakening" as the proportion of altcoins on Binance that are trading above their 200-day moving average (MA) rose to 21%, matching levels previously observed in September 2025, indicating that "investor interest in altcoins appears to be gradually returning," Darkfost noted in a Quicktake analysis on Wednesday, further stating:
"This represents a crucial indicator for those looking to gain exposure."
Darkfost warned that declaring an altseason remains premature since the metric continues to fall below levels recorded in mid-2025 and Q4 2024, periods when the majority of altcoins were trading between 60-80% above their 200-day MA.
At the same time, crypto analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted increasing activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) as an additional indication of growing altcoin momentum.
Based on the analyst's findings, altcoin trading volume, when excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies, has demonstrated consistent growth throughout recent weeks. The chart presented below displays the emergence of an Altcoin Volume Increasing Trend (yellow bars), which appeared when the 30-day MA for altcoin trading volume moved above its 365-day MA.
Based on historical patterns, when this metric turns yellow, "it signals a clear rotation of capital from major caps into mid and low-cap altcoins," the analyst explained, continuing:
"If this momentum is sustained, it could serve as a strong confirmation that a broader altcoin rally is underway."
Altcoin season "approaching"
The 90-day AltSeason Index has also risen to 28.6, marking its highest reading in months. This index monitors whether the majority of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin during the preceding 90 days.
"The altseason is starting quietly," CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 stated in a recent Quicktake analysis, pointing to the "rapid rise" in the index throughout the past several weeks, and noting:
"The real AltSeason is approaching."
While the index has shown recovery, its current value of 28.6 indicates that merely 28.6% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have surpassed Bitcoin's performance during the last 90 days. This remains below the 75% "altseason" benchmark, as defined by Blockchaincenter.
Among these outperformers are ZCash (ZEC), Bittensor (TAO) and Morphor (MORPHOR), which have gained 98%, 72% and 68% during the last three months, respectively, in contrast to Bitcoin's (BTC) 17% gains.
CW8900 further commented:
"The indicator also shows that there was no real AltSeason in this cycle. The period when the AltSeason Index reached its highest point was early 2024, and even that value was relatively low compared to previous AltSeasons."
Altcoins show signs of bottoming out
Information from TradingView revealed TOTAL2 — representing the combined market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin — rebounding from the lower trend line of a multi-year broadening wedge pattern that has characterized its price movement since mid-2022.
In a Wednesday message on X, analyst cryptocupra suggested TOTAL2's breakout might replicate the 2021 breakout and climb as high as $8 trillion, stating that "altseason is inevitable."
Nebraskangooner's technical chart illustrated TOTAL2 moving above the upper boundary of an ascending triangle formation on the daily time frame.
TOTAL2 is "breaking out from this bottoming pattern," the analyst noted in a recent X post, further observing:
"Altcoin market primed for more upside as long as this breakout holds."
Another crypto analyst GorkemCrypto similarly presented a bullish case using a 2021 fractal pattern that forecasts Bitcoin dominance declining to 40% as capital shifts into altcoins.
Nevertheless, as reported by Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin Dominance Index has reached its highest level since November 2025. BTC dominance has been on an upward trajectory since 2023, indicating that the prevailing trend continues to favor BTC over altcoins.