Key Bitcoin Price Targets in Focus as CLARITY Act Senate Vote Approaches
BTC continued trading beneath the $80,000 threshold while market participants prepared for the US Senate's CLARITY Act markup vote, which may trigger significant price movements toward critical Bitcoin levels.
On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) buyers launched yet another effort to push above the $80,000 threshold, with market participants anticipating potential volatility surrounding the CLARITY Act vote.
Key takeaways:
- Prediction markets placed the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 67% during May.
- For bulls to drive prices toward $84,000 or beyond, BTC must maintain the $78,000-$79,000 range as a support zone.
Prediction markets show 67% probability for CLARITY Act passage in 2026
The CLARITY Act represents a legislative proposal in the United States aimed at establishing more definitive regulatory guidelines for cryptocurrency market oversight and stablecoin governance, with the Senate Banking Committee markup vote set for Thursday.
According to Polymarket data, participants in prediction markets currently assess a 67% likelihood that the CLARITY Act will achieve enactment into law during 2026.
Meanwhile, users of competing platform Kalshi have priced the probability of the legislation becoming law before August at 62%, and before Dec. 31, 2026, at 67%.
Should the CLARITY Act secure passage, Bitcoin could receive clear classification as a digital commodity falling under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulatory jurisdiction, which would diminish legal ambiguity for the sector and enhance crypto's legitimacy within the United States.
Market expectations point to a positive Bitcoin response, comparable to reactions following the GENIUS Act's signing in July 2025, which established the first comprehensive US stablecoin regulatory framework. At that time, Bitcoin was already approaching record highs and continued its ascent fueled by regulatory optimism.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, expressed an optimistic outlook, stating:
"Big day today with the CLARITY Act vote. Might be a historical day for everyone involved in Crypto and could, very well, signal the start of a stronger cycle."
Analyst Sharky forecasts a subdued initial price increase, with the genuine substantial movement arriving "90 days later, when institutional money finally has legal clarity."
However, not every analyst shared enthusiasm regarding the event, as Material Indicators, a trading resource, suggested the CLARITY Act's passage is "somewhat baked-in to $BTC price," further noting:
"Passing it will likely deliver a knee-jerk reaction from the market that pumps price briefly, but like all narratives, that rally will fade."
Previous reporting from Cointelegraph indicated that certain traders are anticipating a rapid Bitcoin price movement toward $90,000 in the wake of the CLARITY Act vote, bolstered by enhanced market conditions and diminishing sell pressure.
Market observers identify critical BTC price thresholds
While Bitcoin executed a noteworthy recovery to $82,000 during the previous week, bullish momentum encountered resistance from the 200-day moving averages positioned around this price point, which dampened positive sentiment.
Bulls must maintain the $78,000 support level, which represents both the short-term holder realized price and the authentic market mean.
This price point aligns with the 21-week exponential moving average (green line), as analyst Rekt Capital demonstrated in the accompanying chart, commenting:
"Downside wicking below it would be fine as long as price ends the week with a weekly candle close above the EMA to confirm it as retested support."
Analysis of Bitcoin's realized price segmented by age cohorts identifies an additional significant support level positioned lower: the cost basis for the 1-week-to-1-month investor cohort stands at $76,900.
"This cohort's cost basis now sits at approximately $76.9K, forming the most immediate support floor in the short term."
Regarding upside resistance, the cost basis for investors who acquired BTC throughout the November 2025-February consolidation phase sits at $86,900, constituting the "most probable near-term resistance zone as these holders approach breakeven and face a growing incentive to distribute into strength," according to the onchain data provider's assessment.
Crypto trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades indicated that a breakout above $82,000 would propel BTC higher to close the CME gap located at $84,000, ultimately "continuing quite a lot higher" beyond that threshold.
According to earlier Cointelegraph coverage, crucial support zones for bullish traders included the 20-day EMA positioned at $79,000 and the 50-day SMA at $74,000, whereas bearish forces were anticipated to mount defense at $84,000.