Key support level defense triggers potential XRP price reversal indicators
Multiple technical and blockchain metrics point toward a potential bottom formation in XRP as market participants monitor critical support zones.
The XRP (XRP) digital asset has experienced a prolonged bearish trend spanning eight months, with both momentum-based and blockchain analytics displaying readings that have historically aligned with significant macro price floors.
According to information sourced from TradingView, the relative strength index (RSI) measuring the XRP/BTC trading pair currently stands at 24, representing the deepest oversold condition observed since October 2025.
Historical analysis shows that when the daily RSI reaches such depressed levels, these readings have consistently identified bottom formations for the ratio, subsequently triggering substantial XRP price surges against Bitcoin ranging from 65% to 345% during late 2024 and throughout 2025.
Analysis of the chart displayed above demonstrates that the XRP/BTC trading pair currently operates within an extended consolidation pattern, a zone that has historically served as a robust foundation for significant ratio expansion.
The most recent instance of XRP establishing a bottom against Bitcoin near this particular zone occurred in June 2025. This moment initiated a 61% surge in the XRP/BTC ratio, which coincided with a 92% XRP price advancement reaching a multi-year peak of $3.66.
Additional historical occurrences highlighted by the yellow bars displayed on the chart further validate the dependability of this price level in identifying macro bottom formations for the XRP/BTC pair.
MVRV Z-Score suggests XRP price is bottoming
The MVRV Z-score for XRP currently hovers in proximity to zero, a threshold that has traditionally corresponded with accumulation phases and market bottom formations.
This metric demonstrates that the majority of token holders are positioned near their breakeven point, which diminishes selling pressure and indicates potential exhaustion of downward price movement. Comparable patterns emerged during 2021, 2022 and 2024 prior to significant bullish rallies.
It's worth noting that the previous occasion when XRP's MVRV Z-score declined to comparable readings in late 2024 aligned with a macro market floor at $0.30 and came before a sustained multi-month bullish trend, with the XRP/USD trading pair climbing 500% to reach a multi-year summit exceeding $3.
At the same time, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically indicated cycle bottom formations, currently sits at $1.14, aligning with a 15-month trough that was reached on Feb. 6.
These blockchain-based metrics indicate that XRP appears undervalued and could sustain the current recovery trajectory, with potential advancement toward $1.70 or beyond.
XRP price must hold above $1.30
In the meantime, the XRP/USD pair maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook provided it defends the $1.25-$1.30 support region.
"$XRP is sustaining the major support zone between $1.30-$1.25 levels since early Feb'26," trader ChiefraT said in an X post on Friday, adding:
"If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can't be ruled out."
The critical nature of this support zone receives additional confirmation through cost basis distribution analysis. The heatmap presented below reveals that approximately 1.73 billion XRP tokens were purchased around this particular price point.
Beneath that threshold, the subsequent defensive line resides at the $1.15 demand zone, which corresponds with the location of the 200-week simple moving average.
Should the XRP/USD pair breach below this critical level, it would face a potential decline toward the measured objective of the bear flag pattern at $0.80, representing a 41% decrease from the current price level.
As previously covered by Cointelegraph, maintaining the $1.27-$1.30 range would demonstrate bullish strength among market participants who need to drive the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high in order to reclaim market control.