Figure Technology's $4 Trillion Tokenized Credit Market Potential Highlighted by Bernstein
Analysts at Bernstein highlight Figure's strategic shift from home equity lending to blockchain-powered credit solutions, noting the emerging scale of tokenization across wider loan market sectors.
Figure Technology Solutions stock has experienced a climb of approximately 10% during the past month, yet the equity remains underpriced considering the firm's strategic transformation beyond its original identity as a fintech lending provider, based on analysis from Bernstein.
On Tuesday, the research firm reaffirmed its "Outperform" designation for Figure (FIGR), maintaining a price target of $67, which suggests potential upside of around 67% from present trading levels, while preserving its earlier forecast.
The investment thesis from Bernstein focuses on Figure's evolution from being primarily a home equity line of credit (HELOC) origination platform toward becoming a comprehensive ecosystem that encompasses blockchain infrastructure alongside AI-powered credit market solutions.
Central to this transformation is the concept of tokenization — specifically, the conversion of traditional loans into onchain tradable assets capable of settling transactions in real time. According to Bernstein's calculations, the total addressable market for credit products converted to tokens stands at approximately $4 trillion, which would allow Figure to access an opportunity substantially larger than what conventional HELOC lending provides.
The research note additionally highlighted robust performance indicators. Loan volume figures hit $1.34 billion during April, representing a 108% increase compared to the same period in the previous year and constituting the second straight month exceeding the $1 billion threshold. Bernstein anticipates this upward trajectory will persist, forecasting aggregate loan volumes will expand to $16.5 billion by 2027 from $8.4 billion in 2025.
Tokenized credit market could draw from wide swath
The $4 trillion addressable market figure cited by Bernstein represents the aggregate annual volume of credit origination spanning numerous loan classifications that could ultimately transition to onchain infrastructure as tokenized financial instruments.
This encompasses various lending categories such as mortgages, auto loans, home equity lines of credit and small-business loans — market segments where Figure is actively pursuing expansion opportunities beyond its original core business operations.
Certainly, tokenized credit continues to represent a relatively modest component of the larger real-world asset (RWA) ecosystem. Nevertheless, current industry metrics indicate the sector maintains a valuation of approximately $5.5 billion, underscoring the substantial distance between present-day market penetration and the extended-term expansion potential that Bernstein's analysis describes.
Additional projects are currently conducting trials to bring various credit products onchain. Centrifuge has broadened its decentralized finance platform to incorporate tokenized credit alongside US Treasury products across additional blockchain networks, with the objective of bridging institutional-quality assets with DeFi liquidity pools.
Figure has pursued entry into market segments including auto loans via its Hastra ecosystem, where credit products converted to tokens are structured to integrate seamlessly with decentralized finance protocols and the broader spectrum of blockchain-based markets.