CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin Bear Phase Complete as Metric Mirrors 2023 Turnaround
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declares Bitcoin's 2026 bear phase has concluded, citing a crucial profit indicator that has replicated historical patterns to signal a BTC price trend reversal.
Based on certain analytical measurements, Bitcoin (BTC) has concluded its bear market phase as a comprehensive BTC price measurement tool turns bullish for the initial time since October 2025.
Key points:
- Ki Young Ju states Bitcoin has completed its 2026 bear market cycle as a profitability measurement displays a positive value of 0.042.
- The transition from negative to positive territory mirrors a bull-market recovery indicator that was also evident in early 2023.
- Questions persist regarding inadequate market liquidity to sustain a macroeconomic BTC price trend reversal.
Bitcoin profitability measurement delivers initial bullish signal in ten-month period
Recent data released from onchain analytics service CryptoQuant has prompted its CEO, Ki Young Ju, to declare the conclusion of Bitcoin's 2026 bear market phase.
Through an X post published on Wednesday, Ki highlighted the initial positive measurement on CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator since the beginning of October.
"The Bitcoin bear cycle is over," he wrote in accompanying commentary.
The measurement tool is calculated from the P&L Index — originally developed by CryptoQuant's head of research — and evaluates the P&L Index's deviation from its 365-day moving average. The P&L Index itself comprises multiple onchain profitability measurements: the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Combined, these elements deliver a comprehensive overview of Bitcoin investors' realized and unrealized gains and losses. Measurements exceeding zero for the Bull/Bear measurement tool indicate bullish periods in the BTC price cycle as profitability increases.
The current cycle's lowest points occurred on Feb. 5 when BTC/USD dropped to $60,000, with a measurement of -1.244 reflecting "extreme bear" market conditions. As of Aug. 26, the latest date for which complete data is accessible, Bull/Bear showed a positive measurement of 0.042, positioning it within its "bull" category.
The pairing of P&L measurements and their 365-day moving averages has demonstrated reliability in validating macroeconomic BTC price trend reversals. Ki observes that Bull/Bear similarly identified the conclusion of the prior bear market as upward momentum resumed in early 2023.
Doubts regarding BTC price momentum persist and accumulate
Bitcoin has experienced the gradual resurgence of bullish indicators from diverse measurements in recent weeks, including the relative strength index (RSI), a rebound that was similarly observed at the conclusion of 2022.
Agreement among market observers regarding Bitcoin's recent upward movement signaling the termination of its macroeconomic downtrend is far from universal. Earlier, Cointelegraph documented on apprehensions that insufficient demand could cause BTC/USD to return to downward movement, with numerous liquidity obstacles positioned directly above spot price.
In continuous market analysis, trader and analyst Rekt Capital contended that the August monthly close would be "pivotal" for the outcome of the recovery, referencing a potential breakthrough from a downward-sloping resistance trend line established since October last year.