BTC Maintains $70K Level as ETF Investors Approach Profit Territory: Bull Run Resumption Ahead?
Should Bitcoin surge to the $80,000 mark, most spot BTC ETF investors would reach breakeven on their holdings, potentially marking the return of bullish momentum in cryptocurrency markets.
The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a significant milestone as it nears the average purchase price of $79,900 for investors in US spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) products. This decreasing distance between Bitcoin's current trading value and the average cost paid by ETF participants is occurring alongside blockchain analytics revealing early indicators of increased purchasing activity among market participants.
ETF Investors' Breakeven Point Approaches Critical Trend Milestone
The consistent upward movement of Bitcoin's price beyond the $70,000 threshold has brought renewed attention to an important group of market participants. During the middle of 2024, the average cost basis for ETF investors served as a price floor, and moving past this threshold would position numerous ETF participants near their initial investment values.
The movement of capital provides additional perspective on this transition. Based on analysis from Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the direction of ETF flows reversed to positive territory following continuous withdrawals that extended through the middle of February.
The rolling seven-day average has subsequently shifted toward consistent deposits, with single-day flows reaching heights exceeding 3,300 BTC on March 2. Total holdings within ETF products have grown to 1,291,618 BTC from a previous level of 1,264,982 BTC, representing an accumulation of 26,636 BTC throughout the last month.
The average entry price for ETF investors additionally corresponds with an important trend indicator on daily timeframes. A conclusive breakthrough of this price range represents the first successful recapture of the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on daily charts since October 2025.
Breaking above the 100-day EMA indicates a transition toward an extended bullish trend, which further strengthens positive price momentum. This moving average functions as an important directional filter where consistent trading activity above this level frequently results in additional upward price advances.
Purchasing Activity for Bitcoin Starts Exceeding Selling Volume
Transaction flow patterns on leading trading platforms reveal a progressive transformation in participant behavior. Cryptocurrency market analyst Darkfost observed that the 30-day volume delta across Binance and Coinbase has shifted into positive territory following extended downward pressure during February. The combined flows from both individual and institutional market participants are now tilting in favor of accumulation strategies.
Derivatives market information for Bitcoin supports this developing pattern. Market analyst Amr Taha highlighted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) on Binance has recovered by approximately $6 billion from its lowest points, following an increase in assertive market purchases since BTC was trading around the $63,000 level.
While this indicator continues to register below the zero line, a substantial amount of the previous selling force has been neutralized throughout the recent price recovery.
Analytics from CryptoQuant demonstrate that the behavior of short-term holders equally supports this transformation. The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) indicator, which tracks whether digital assets are being sold for gains or losses, has climbed back above the 1.0 threshold, indicating that selling intensity has diminished and tokens are currently changing hands at or above their acquisition cost. Market analyst miracleyoon said,
"While this capitulation was not as severe as the August 5, 2024, event (which saw SOPR approach ~0.9), the series of recent capitulation signals appears sufficient to have flushed out weak hands."
The compiled evidence indicates that Bitcoin continues to advance toward testing the $80,000 price level, though movement beyond the crucial breakeven threshold could prove decisive in establishing both the magnitude and trajectory of market trends throughout upcoming weeks.