ETH onchain metrics point toward $2.8K target, yet derivatives signal caution
Bulls in the Ether market have their sights set on $2,800, however futures market indicators reveal trader hesitation and suggest the probability of achieving a sustained 33% upward move remains uncertain.
Following its climb to a monthly peak of $2,209 on Friday, the price of Ether (ETH) retreated beneath a crucial monthly resistance level that has faced testing on five occasions since February.
Although onchain metrics point to a significant cluster of market participants positioned around the $2,800 level, data from Ether's futures markets reveals that traders have been reducing their exposure following the rally witnessed this week.
A significant accumulation zone emerges at investors' $2,800 cost basis
According to information provided by Glassnode, the cost-basis distribution heatmap for ETH reveals substantial accumulation occurring in the vicinity of $2,800, a price level where over 3 million ETH tokens were acquired previously.
These cost-basis clusters serve to pinpoint specific price regions where significant cohorts of market participants opened positions, frequently functioning as attraction points during bullish movements as holders protect their initial entry points or increase their market exposure.
This information points toward a possible trajectory moving upward toward the $2,800 mark. Of particular interest is the fact that between the current $2,200 level and the $2,800 cost-basis cluster, there exists comparatively sparse historical supply concentration, which implies that a successful breakout above the present trading range could permit the price to advance more fluidly toward that upper target.
Looking at the technical perspective, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) similarly aligns in proximity to the $2,800 price point when examining the daily chart, representing a critical technical indicator that ETH has not tested since the beginning of January.
Nevertheless, data derived from derivatives markets indicates that market participants continue to exercise caution around the current price territory.
Activity in Ether futures markets diminishes following the $2,200 attempt
Market activity within Ether's futures segment experienced expansion throughout this week's upward movement, with open interest climbing 21% to reach $10.9 billion from its previous level of $9 billion as the asset's price approached the $2,200 threshold. This rise indicates that market participants were establishing fresh leveraged positions during Ether's ascent.
Nevertheless, the character of positioning underwent a transformation once ETH reached the upper boundary of the range. Following the test of $2,200, open interest declined by approximately 6%, which reveals that certain traders initiated the closing of positions instead of expanding their exposure further.
This retreat implies that long-positioned traders most likely secured profits or minimized risk exposure near the range's upper limit, thereby decelerating the rally's forward momentum.
Activity within the spot market demonstrated strengthening demand throughout the upward price movement. The spot volume cumulative delta (CVD), a metric that monitors aggressive purchasing versus selling activity, jumped significantly to $87 million from a negative reading of -$150 million on March 8, confirming that purchasing pressure intensified as Ether recovered from the $2,000 price region.
In contrast, order-flow metrics painted a picture of weakening bullish conviction. Throughout Ether's consolidation phase near the $2,000 level, the bid–ask ratio maintained robust positive values, demonstrating that buyers controlled trading activity during this range-bound period.
This underlying strength deteriorated as the asset's price neared $2,150, signifying diminished purchasing pressure approaching the peak of the upward move.
Information from Hyblock provided further insight into the derivatives market landscape. The positioning within futures contracts remains comparatively equilibrated, with traders holding long positions representing approximately 59.4% of total Ether futures exposure on the Binance exchange.
This type of equilibrated market perspective frequently results in erratic price movement as the market encounters difficulty in conclusively penetrating nearby resistance thresholds.
The available data reveals the emergence of a divergence pattern, whereby historical ETH accumulation zones suggest potential for a rally extending to $2,800. Taking this into consideration, it becomes evident that participants in Ether futures trading maintain a cautious stance within ETH's present trading range.