BTC bulls gain momentum with 6% weekly surge: Is further upside ahead?
Renewed buying activity emerges across Bitcoin spot, futures and ETF platforms, though geopolitical uncertainties threaten to reverse recent two-week gains.
Throughout the week, Bitcoin (BTC) found itself navigating between two contrasting narratives. The first pointed toward strengthening onchain purchasing momentum and increased ETF capital flows, while the second remained tethered to sentiment indicators and media developments broadcasting uncertainty.
The combined volume delta for spot and futures markets, which tracks the cumulative balance between purchase and sale orders, revealed $925 million in net purchasing activity for Bitcoin on July 15. This orderbook momentum successfully absorbed the complete post-CPI retraction in both open interest and valuation instead of succumbing to downward pressure. Concurrently, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $107.7 million in net capital inflows on July 15, representing the second straight positive session after recording $181 million on July 14.
Throughout the majority of the preceding week, funding rates ranged between 0.10% and 0.22%, before experiencing a sharp decline to 0.048%. When considered alongside the 3.4% reduction in open interest from Tuesday's high point, this indicates leverage reduction without a matching price drop, given that Bitcoin declined merely 1.5% during the identical timeframe. This pattern implies that long positions being unwound represent traders retreating from the post-CPI positioning to recalibrate as Bitcoin reached its local range ceiling around $65,000 to $66,000.
In spite of the momentum building across spot, futures, and ETF platforms, overall market sentiment has not yet aligned. The Fear & Greed Index remains positioned near 26, firmly within "Fear" range, even as Bitcoin recorded approximately 4.4% recovery from its latest $62,100 bottom. For market participants who employ this indicator through a contrarian lens, sustained positive flows while sentiment remains suppressed has traditionally represented a more robust foundation than rallies where sentiment has already been incorporated into pricing.
A different perspective suggests that genuine risk-off catalysts continue to loom ahead. During this week the US war in Iran resumed, oil prices surged beyond $85 and forecasts for a Fed rate hike by September 2026 persist above 44%.
The encouraging metrics from the week fall short of confirming a trend reversal. Indeed, two consecutive days of validated purchasing activity are worth noting, but they lack definitive strength.
At present, funding is declining toward neutral territory, spot ETF flows continue to show negative performance year-to-date, and a concentration of long liquidations exists approximately 1.5% beneath the present price ($63,200).