Bitcoin expected to surpass gold and US equities returns in next 10 years, says JPMorgan
According to JPMorgan's latest forecasts, Bitcoin is set to deliver superior returns compared to US equities and gold throughout the coming decade, though the firm advises against relying on it for portfolio diversification purposes.
According to JPMorgan Asset Management's latest analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to deliver stronger returns than both equities and gold throughout the coming ten-year period, though the investment bank emphasizes that the cryptocurrency's high volatility renders it inappropriate for portfolio diversification at this time.
JPMorgan released its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report this Monday, forecasting an annual return of 10% for Bitcoin, which stands in contrast to the 7.5% projected for large-cap US equities and the 5.5% forecast for gold.
These forecasts form a component of JPMorgan's yearly analysis that encompasses over 200 different asset classes, designed to assist investors in structuring their investment portfolios.
At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations. We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.
JPMorgan 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report
JPMorgan projects double-digit Bitcoin gains or losses
Under JPMorgan's optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could achieve annual returns of 16.6%, whereas the pessimistic scenario anticipates an annual decline of 11.2%. These projections took into account BTC supply expansion relative to monetary supply growth, its prospective position alongside gold, and the rate of network adoption.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, expressed enthusiasm regarding Bitcoin's incorporation into JPMorgan's analysis.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.
Matt Hougan on X
Hougan's organization has released a considerably more optimistic projection. During August 2025, Bitwise forecasted that Bitcoin could climb to $1.3 million by 2035, with their baseline scenario suggesting an annualized return of 28.3%.