Hyperliquid's HYPE token reaches 2026 peak amid volume surge: Can momentum continue?
The HYPE token climbed to $45, though indicators including limited spot volume and increased leverage suggest potential weakness in sustained upward movement.
The native cryptocurrency of Hyperliquid, HYPE, approached the $45 level once again on Tuesday, representing its strongest price point since October 31, 2025. This upward movement continues an impressive 108% surge from the token's yearly bottom of $21 recorded on Jan. 21.
As HYPE's valuation advances closer to record territory, indicators of market appetite present a conflicting picture, with lackluster spot market purchasing undermining the strength of the ongoing price increase.
Onchain indicators and HYPE price action show contradiction
The token is presently changing hands 26% beneath its historical peak of $59, facing minimal overhead resistance as it approaches that level. The upcoming area of liquidity concentration sits in the $48 to $52 range and might be achieved should current momentum persist. That said, trading metrics from both HYPE spot and futures markets indicate the price surge lacks complete conviction from market participants.
The cumulative volume delta (CVD) on the spot market has experienced a gradual decrease to -$41.48 million, despite concurrent price appreciation. This contradiction points to the rally receiving support primarily from passive market demand rather than forceful spot market acquisition.
Concurrently, the CVD for futures contracts has remained relatively stagnant around -$748 million throughout the last thirty days, following a rebound from depths approaching -$900 million.
The metric for open interest (OI) has climbed consistently to reach $1.38 billion, approaching recent peaks and indicating heightened trader involvement in the market.
Nevertheless, climbing OI combined with underwhelming futures CVD points to traders holding positions that lack robust confidence in the continuing upward price trajectory.
Consequently, the marketplace could face increased susceptibility to abrupt, liquidation-triggered price swings when the current bullish momentum eventually weakens.
Former BitMEX executive forecasts 200% HYPE appreciation by August
During March, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, projected that HYPE might achieve a $150 price target should Hyperliquid successfully expand its market dominance in futures trading and broaden its range of offerings.
The foundation of Hayes' analysis rests on Hyperliquid's continued capture of market share from centralized trading platforms and its growing protocol-generated revenue streams.
The platform's annualized revenue run rate for a 30-day period reached $843 million during March, and Hayes' projection requires it to climb to $1.4 billion by August. This scenario would necessitate a 66% revenue expansion across a five-month window.
The Hyperliquid protocol directs as much as 97% of generated revenue toward purchasing HYPE tokens on the open market, establishing a straightforward connection between platform trading volumes and token buying pressure.
A protocol enhancement called HIP-3, which facilitates trading of assets beyond cryptocurrency such as commodities, now accounts for approximately 10% of total revenue and may fuel additional growth, particularly as traditional assets including gold and oil attract more trading interest on the platform.
Trading volumes for real-world asset (RWA) products on Hyperliquid have experienced dramatic acceleration, with open interest climbing to $2.3 billion as of April 6. This represents an expansion exceeding 190% compared to March figures and approaches 800% growth from the beginning of the year.
The velocity of this protocol expansion and its market share acquisition could serve as crucial factors in determining whether the altcoin experiences a prolonged price advance.