Major Hyperliquid Trader Wagers $80M on Bitcoin Collapse: Should Investors Worry?
An $80 million position on Hyperliquid DEX betting against Bitcoin and favoring oil has raised eyebrows, though the trader's track record shows significant past losses.
Key takeaways:
- An $80 million bearish position targeting Bitcoin and the S&P 500 while taking a bullish stance on Brent crude oil has been established by a Hyperliquid whale.
- The trader's track record of significant losses and erratic trading patterns indicate this position might not accurately predict market direction.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated resilience by recovering from a dip to $66,000 on Tuesday, following President Donald Trump's hints at a possible ceasefire between the US and Israel-Iran conflict. Despite Bitcoin's climb above the $68,000 mark, a major trader on Hyperliquid DEX established an $80 million position betting on widespread market decline.
Market participants are keeping a close eye on whether this substantial wager indicates an impending Bitcoin price crash.
The major Hyperliquid trader, identified by address 0x94d373…c933814, methodically constructed this approximately $80 million leveraged bet across Tuesday and Wednesday. The position comprises a $40 million short position on Bitcoin futures around the $68,760 level, a $2 million short on synthetic contracts tracking the S&P 500 Index, and a $37 million long position in synthetic Brent crude oil contracts.
The trader's overall position carried 7 times leverage, suggesting strong confidence in the trade. For the Bitcoin futures component, the liquidation threshold sat at $80,083, whereas the Brent oil long would face forced closure if prices exceeded $93. The trade's timing appears peculiar given that S&P 500 Index futures climbed 4% during the Tuesday-to-Wednesday period amid market expectations that the US and Israel-Iran conflict could subside within weeks.
During Wednesday's announcements, President Trump indicated that "Iran's New Regime President" is weighing a "ceasefire," though the specific terms required to completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz haven't been disclosed. Iran's position includes demands for both reparations and sovereignty. This suggests the Hyperliquid trader may be taking a contrarian stance against the market's positive sentiment, anticipating that Brent crude oil will surge while Bitcoin experiences depreciation.
This Hyperliquid whale previously lost $40 million
The address is associated with a notably unfortunate trader, or at minimum someone who has experienced considerable losses since the end of January. Evidence suggests the Hyperliquid whale employs automated trading bots for order execution, as indicated by the high volume of small transactions that accumulate into massive positions, yet this strategy didn't prevent a $37 million loss during the initial month of trading activity in December 2025.
This particular trader gained attention from X user 'lookonchain' on Feb. 5 following substantial losses on leveraged long positions across Ether (ETH), Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP).
The analysis revealed that this whale had successfully generated $25 million in profits through short positions across various cryptocurrencies, but chose to reverse course on Feb. 4, which led to a devastating $40 million loss. While the exact reasoning behind this entity's decision to enter those positions remains unknown, the incident demonstrates that even major players with substantial capital can fundamentally misread market conditions.
President Trump's inconsistent messaging surrounding a potential comprehensive invasion and the ongoing Iran conflict creates space for divergent market interpretations. While Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refuted claims of ceasefire negotiations, he acknowledged to Al Jazeera on Tuesday that there existed an intent to conclude the war, as reported by CNBC.
Considering this whale's historical market positioning and documented pattern of unsuccessful trades, there's a reasonable possibility that this current $80 million wager could also end up on the losing side of market movements.