First Bitcoin MVRV 'golden cross' since 2023 emerges: Is a BTC price surge imminent?
BTC's MVRV indicator points toward increasing bullish pressure as Bitcoin's market framework solidifies, potentially signaling the emergence of a fresh bull market cycle.
An extended bullish trend could be on the horizon for Bitcoin (BTC), as a crucial valuation indicator shows signs of generating a positive signal that may push BTC valuations "much higher," crypto market analysts report.
Key takeaways:
- A golden cross formation in Bitcoin's MVRV ratio indicates a pivot toward bullish conditions, with historical patterns showing extended rally periods following such signals.
- Market participants analyzing Bitcoin trends contend that $60,000 represented the bottom of the bear market, anticipating a "huge" upcoming BTC price breakout.
Bitcoin MVRV momentum delivers a "trend reversal signal"
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Bitcoin, a metric used to determine if the cryptocurrency is trading above or below fair value, is approaching a "golden cross" formation—a technical pattern that has historically been followed by substantial price increases, per CryptoQuant analyst CW8900.
"A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line is imminent," the analyst stated via an X post published on Sunday, further noting:
"This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator."
The most recent occurrence of this positive crossover pattern appeared shortly following the 2022 cycle low, which came before a 90% surge in BTC valuation to $31,000 from $16,300 during Q1 2023. A subsequent crossover signal in September 2023 preceded a remarkable 400% bull market rally that culminated in the present all-time high of $126,000 achieved in October 2025.
During a previous analytical breakdown, CW8900 pointed to a golden cross formation when Bitcoin's MVRV ratio 30-day simple moving average (SMA) moved above its 90-day SMA during late April, commenting:
"$BTC has completely turned to a bullish trend."
At the same time, Bitcoin's latest advance to $83,000 elevated the short-term holder (STH) cost basis threshold as more recent market participants moved back into profitable territory.
The STH cost basis represents the mean acquisition price for investors who have maintained Bitcoin positions for fewer than 155 days.
The analysis chart displayed below indicates that valuations may climb further to reach the "heated" range of this particular metric, presently positioned at $92,000.
While profit-taking activity persists at existing price levels, the STH risk zone analysis indicates BTC has room for additional near-term appreciation with the "heated" threshold at $92,000 and the overheated level at $104,000.
Bitcoin analysts say BTC's "huge breakout" is coming
According to Cointelegraph's coverage, market analysts suggest Bitcoin has reached a critical juncture as it challenges the 200-day moving average positioned at $82,500.
Successfully breaking above this threshold could terminate the extended multi-month declining trend, whereas a failure to hold could trigger renewed selling pressure toward $50,000.
Market analyst Shib Spain maintains that BTC's successful breach above a multi-month descending trend line on the weekly timeframe represents a fundamental structural transformation away from bearish control, further validated by a positive crossover signal from the MACD indicator.
"Bitcoin's huge breakout is coming. MACD bullish reversal forming," the analyst declared in a recent X platform post, continuing:
"The bull run is just getting started."
Another analyst known as Moustache draws attention to the BTC market capitalization alongside its RSI rebounding from multi-year support trend lines on the monthly timeframe, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
"Just like in 2022, I've called the bottom for $BTC again this cycle," the analyst stated in an X post released on Monday, elaborating:
"Prices will go much, much higher. We've got something big to look forward to."
According to reporting from Cointelegraph, multiple market analysts are forecasting a "supercycle" rally pushing valuations toward $180,000-$250,000 potentially as soon as this year, underpinned by ongoing institutional accumulation and an increasingly robust technical configuration.