XRP Faces Potential Decline to $1.10 as Profitable Supply Reaches 17-Month Low
Blockchain analytics reveal that just 43% of the total XRP supply remains profitable at current prices, mirroring conditions observed in January 2022 before additional price deterioration occurred.
The digital asset XRP (XRP) faces the possibility of declining to the $1.10 price level, with decreasing profitable supply indicating increased bearish pressure and establishing conditions typically associated with fresh lows.
Key takeaways:
- The percentage of XRP supply currently profitable has fallen to 43%, matching levels observed in November 2024.
- Market participants have been continuously offloading their XRP positions, with realized losses reaching $110 million daily.
- A breakdown from XRP's rising wedge pattern indicates a target of $1.10.
Profitable XRP supply falls beneath 50% threshold
Data from Tuesday indicates that 43% of the entire XRP token supply remained in profitable territory, representing levels not witnessed since November 2024, based on metrics from blockchain intelligence platform Glassnode.
When examining historical patterns, the indicator falling beneath the 50% threshold has typically marked a shift from market optimism toward desperation, featuring panic-driven sell-offs and significant capitulation events commonly observed during the final phases of preceding bear market cycles.
During the period spanning January through June 2022, XRP's price experienced a decline from above $0.75 down to $0.30, with this drop occurring alongside the profitable supply metric deteriorating from approximately 50% to a low of 20%. A comparable situation unfolded in 2018, during which XRP suffered an additional 70% price reduction while profitable supply plummeted to 15%.
According to Glassnode's findings, market participants who purchased XRP above the $2 threshold during the preceding 12 months "have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M–$110M/day since November 2025."
In commentary shared Tuesday via the X platform, market analyst Crypto Town Hall noted that this pattern "reflects widespread holder drawdowns, often seen during late-stage corrections," which can trigger steep price declines as holders persist in crystallizing their losses.
Furthermore, wallet addresses that have been active on the XRP Ledger throughout the past year are currently experiencing a 41% decline on their holdings.
"This is the lowest MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) for XRP traders since the FTX crash in November, 2022," blockchain analytics provider Santiment noted in a Tuesday X post, further stating:
"Significantly negative average returns imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding on to your $XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe 'blood in the streets' territory."
The implications suggest additional selling pressure may emerge as market participants attempt to minimize their losses, representing a crucial factor in sustaining the downward trajectory toward the projected $1.10 price level.
Rising wedge breakdown in XRP points to $1.10 target
The XRP/USD trading pair is currently experiencing the breakdown stage of a rising wedge formation on the daily chart timeframe, representing a bearish technical pattern that develops when price action becomes compressed within two upward-trending lines following a significant price drop.
Price action broke beneath the wedge pattern's lower support line at the $1.37 level on March 27 and is currently executing a characteristic post-breakdown retest in the vicinity of the 50-day simple moving average positioned around $1.38. This zone is currently functioning as the primary resistance level.
Should XRP prove unable to recapture the trendline alongside the moving average levels, the technical formation suggests a more substantial decline toward the pattern's measured downside target located near $1.10, representing approximately 16% below present price levels.
This projection aligns closely with forecasts from Polymarket participants who assign a 57% probability that XRP's price will reach $1.20 prior to April's conclusion.
According to previous Cointelegraph analysis, should bullish traders prove unsuccessful in reclaiming the moving average indicators and price action penetrates below the $1.27 support level, XRP faces the risk of declining toward $1.11, with the potential for further deterioration to the psychologically significant $1 price threshold.