Market Outlook 2/23: Analysis of SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, BCH, ADA
Cryptocurrency markets and Bitcoin experienced significant downward pressure following US stock market reactions to President Donald Trump's announcement of a 15% worldwide tariff. Could prices reach fresh 2026 lows?
The decline in Bitcoin's (BTC) value continued as the week began, coinciding with major stock market selloffs triggered by US President Donald Trump's warning to implement a 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court decision declaring his IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional.
The overall market mood continues to be delicate, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering a reading of 5 out of 100, firmly situated in the "extreme fear" territory. According to a post on X by pseudonymous trader and investor BitcoinHyper, the index has remained in this extreme fear zone for almost three weeks, representing the lengthiest period since 2022.
Market participants on the prediction platform Polymarket have raised their estimates of BTC declining beneath $55,000 to 72%. These prediction market forecasts align with numerous analysts and financial organizations who anticipate a decline approaching or dropping below $55,000.
Although a market floor may not yet be established, projections suggest that BTC will ultimately rebound and climb higher. In a post on X, economist Timothy Peterson noted that BTC has demonstrated positive performance 50% of the time over the previous 24 months. Utilizing a statistical framework, Peterson calculated that there exists an 88% probability that BTC "will be higher 10 months from now."
Will purchasing activity successfully protect the support thresholds in BTC and the leading altcoins? Let's examine the technical charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to determine the answer.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has maintained trading activity within the range of 6,775 and 7,002 over the past several days, reflecting equilibrium between buying and selling pressure.
The horizontal trajectory of the moving averages combined with the relative strength index (RSI) positioned near the neutral midpoint fail to provide a distinct edge to either bullish or bearish market participants. For buying forces to signal a continuation of the upward trend, they must achieve a closing price above the 7,002 resistance threshold. Following such a breakout, the index could potentially climb toward the 7,290 mark.
This optimistic scenario will become invalid in the short term should the price reverse downward and penetrate below the 6,775 threshold. Such a development could cause the index to plunge toward the strong support positioned at the 6,550 mark.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed from the 50-day simple moving average (97.95) during Friday's session, suggesting that selling forces are vigorously protecting this level.
Bearish traders are working to drive and hold the index beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (97.48). Should they achieve this objective, the index could potentially descend toward the 96.21 to 95.55 support territory.
However, bullish forces are expected to pursue alternative strategies. They will work to stop the decline and drive the price beyond the 50-day SMA. Should they accomplish this goal, the index could potentially surge toward the 99.50 threshold and eventually reach the 100.54 resistance level.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC dropped beneath the $65,118 support level on Monday, though bullish participants are working to maintain this level on a daily closing basis.
Any bounce attempt is anticipated to encounter resistance near the 20-day EMA ($70,185). Should the Bitcoin price experience a sharp reversal from the 20-day EMA, it raises the probability of a descent to the crucial $60,000 support level. Purchasing forces will need to protect the $60,000 threshold with maximum effort, since a breakdown beneath it could drive the BTC/USDT pair down to $52,500.
For buyers to indicate demand at reduced price levels, they must drive the price beyond the 20-day EMA. The pair could then advance toward the $74,508 threshold, where bearish forces are likely to present another significant obstacle.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) dropped beneath the immediate support at $1,897 during Monday's trading, creating the potential for a retest of the $1,750 threshold.
The declining trajectory of the moving averages coupled with the RSI approaching oversold conditions increases the possibility of a breakdown. Should the $1,750 threshold be breached, the ETH/USDT pair could potentially restart the downward trend toward the subsequent support positioned at $1,537.
Alternatively, should the Ether price experience a significant upward reversal from $1,750, it would indicate purchasing activity at reduced levels. This development could maintain the pair within the $1,750 to $2,111 trading range for an extended period. A daily close exceeding $2,111 would represent the initial indication of renewed strength, paving the way for an advance toward the 50-day SMA ($2,593).
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has maintained trading activity between the support boundary of the descending channel formation and the 20-day EMA ($1.47) over the last several days.
The declining 20-day EMA combined with the RSI positioned in negative territory suggests that bearish participants maintain dominance. If the support boundary fails, the XRP/USDT pair could potentially revisit the Feb. 6 low of $1.11. A breakdown and close beneath the $1.11 threshold could potentially extend the decline toward psychological support at $1.
Bullish traders face a challenging situation ahead. They must rapidly push the XRP price above the descending trend line to indicate a possible trend reversal.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) declined beneath the near-term support at $587 during Monday's session, but the extended lower wick on the candlestick pattern reveals purchasing activity at reduced price levels.
Bullish participants will work to initiate a rebound, which is anticipated to face selling pressure at the 20-day EMA ($651). If the price experiences a reversal from the 20-day EMA, bearish forces will once again attempt to drive the BNB/USDT pair beneath the $570 threshold. Should they succeed in this endeavor, the BNB price could potentially begin the subsequent phase of the downtrend toward psychological support at $500.
In contrast to this projection, if purchasing forces successfully penetrate the 20-day EMA, the pair could potentially rally toward the breakdown threshold of $730.
Solana price prediction
The inability of bullish forces to drive Solana (SOL) toward the breakdown threshold of $95 indicates that bearish participants remain active at elevated price levels.
Bearish traders will work to consolidate their position by driving the Solana price beneath the $76 threshold. If they achieve this goal, the SOL/USDT pair could potentially decline to the Feb. 6 low of $67, representing a critical support level requiring attention. Should this level fail to hold, the pair could potentially plummet to $60.
Any rebound attempt is anticipated to encounter resistance at the 20-day EMA followed by the $95 threshold. A close exceeding the $95 level indicates that selling forces are weakening their control. The pair could then potentially surge toward $117.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a reversal from the 20-day EMA ($0.10) during Saturday's trading and is expected to decline toward the Feb. 6 low of $0.08.
Bullish participants are anticipated to strongly protect the $0.08 threshold, since failure to maintain this level could potentially trigger the subsequent phase of the downward movement toward $0.06.
The 20-day EMA represents the primary near-term resistance requiring monitoring. A close surpassing the 20-day EMA will represent the initial indication that downward pressure is diminishing. The DOGE/USDT pair could then potentially climb toward the breakdown threshold of $0.12, where bearish forces are anticipated to establish a robust defense.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Purchasing forces drove Bitcoin Cash (BCH) beyond the 50-day SMA ($571) during Sunday's trading but were unable to maintain these elevated price levels.
Bearish participants responded with aggressive selling and have driven the Bitcoin Cash price beneath the 20-day EMA ($551). Should the price remain below $538, the BCH/USDT pair could potentially drop toward the robust support at $500. Purchasing forces are anticipated to vigorously defend the $500 threshold, as a close beneath it could potentially drive the pair down to $443.
For bullish participants to demonstrate strength, they must push and sustain the price beyond the 50-day SMA. The pair could then potentially advance to $600.
Cardano price prediction
Despite numerous efforts, purchasing forces have been unable to drive and sustain Cardano (ADA) beyond the 20-day EMA ($0.28) during recent days.
This development raises the probability of a decline toward the support boundary of the descending channel formation. Should the price experience a bounce from the support boundary and successfully break beyond the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the ADA/USDT pair could potentially remain confined within the channel for additional time.
Conversely, if the Cardano price maintains its downward trajectory and breaks beneath the support boundary, it signals the continuation of the downward trend. The pair could then potentially decline toward $0.15. A reversal in the short-term trend will be confirmed after purchasing forces overcome the resistance obstacle at the descending trend line.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.