Major ETH Holders Return to Profit, Signaling Potential 25% Ethereum Price Surge
Historical patterns suggest ETH could reach $2,750 by June and surpass $3,200 by September as whale profitability indicators trigger bullish signals.
Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, could experience an approximate 25% price increase over the next several months, driven by the largest whale cohort returning to profitability for the first time since the beginning of February.
Key takeaways:
- Historical data shows ETH averaged 25% gains within three months and 50% gains within six months following previous instances when top whales became profitable again.
- If the on-chain whale indicator follows historical precedent, Ether may surge past $2,750 by June.
Whale indicator suggests ETH has already reached bottom
According to data from CryptoQuant, the unrealized profit ratio for wallets containing more than 100,000 ETH has crossed back above the zero threshold. This indicates that the whale cohort is no longer holding aggregate unrealized losses on paper.
According to on-chain analyst CW, past instances of comparable transitions to a "profitable state marked the starting point of an uptrend."
Historical data reveals that ETH produced average returns of nearly 25% within three months following the whale ratio turning positive. Additionally, the price increased by approximately 50% after six months and surged 300% after one year from the signal emergence.
This price pattern indicates that when the largest ETH whales achieve aggregate profitability, they experience reduced pressure to engage in defensive selling. Simultaneously, this transition can bolster overall market sentiment by demonstrating renewed confidence among the wealthiest ETH stakeholders.
If historical patterns following this signal remain consistent, ETH could advance toward the $2,750 zone by June and climb beyond $3,200 by September.
However, the whale ratio indicator is not without limitations. For example, in 2018, ETH declined 17.5% within the month following a comparable flip and ultimately plunged nearly 70%.
On-chain indicators suggest Ether upside limited to $2,640
An additional on-chain indicator is supporting the case for Ethereum's price recovery.
Data from Glassnode reveals ETH bouncing from its most extreme lower MVRV deviation band (blue), a configuration comparable to Q2 2022 and Q2 2025, during which the price recovered from undervalued territory and ascended back above the realized price level.
Based on current price levels, ETH continues trading beneath its realized price (purple) at $2,353, representing the initial critical recovery threshold. A successful breach above this level could pave the way toward the -0.5 sigma band (teal) positioned near $2,640.
Conversely, inability to recapture the realized price could leave ETH vulnerable to retesting the lowest deviation band located near $1,651.
Technical analysis for Ethereum points to rally exceeding $2,600
From a technical analysis standpoint, ETH has successfully broken out above its ascending triangle formation and is currently experiencing a pullback toward the previous resistance trendline.
These types of retests frequently occur following breakouts, as markets typically revisit the breakout point to verify it has successfully converted into fresh support.
Should the upper trendline maintain its role as support, Ether could continue its recovery trajectory toward the triangle's calculated upside objective positioned around $2,625 or potentially higher.
This price target also falls within the wider on-chain recovery zone identified by Glassnode's MVRV bands, providing additional confirmation to the optimistic technical setup.
Conversely, an unsuccessful retest would undermine the breakout pattern and create risk of ETH returning toward the lower support area near $1,950-$2,000.