Key $74.5K Level Could Signal Bitcoin Bear Market Conclusion: Analysis
Currently trading beneath the average acquisition price for most investors, Bitcoin could see a major shift if it manages to break above $74,500. Will bullish momentum prove sufficient?
Over the last two days, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 7.45% recovery following its Tuesday decline to $62,400, which marked a drop beneath a crucial onchain support level. However, even with this recent uptick, investors who purchased their holdings during the period spanning six months to two years ago are sitting on an average acquisition cost of $74,500, establishing this price point as a critical potential turning point.
With BTC climbing upward, the clustering of available supply in the vicinity of $74,500 represents a crucial examination for the prevailing trend; successfully retaking this threshold in a convincing manner could indicate robust demand and a transformation in the near-term market dynamics.
The significance of $74,500 for Bitcoin bulls
The realized price of Bitcoin monitors the mean onchain purchase cost for a specific UTXO age category. For digital coins that have been held for 18 to 24 months, this metric is positioned around $64,200.
Cryptocurrency analyst Anıl pointed out that Bitcoin made contact with this support level and successfully recovered it by Tuesday's daily closing time, maintaining the zone's integrity for the time being.
Average cost basis thresholds function as psychological turning points, and whenever price action drops underneath these levels, market participants encounter paper losses while the potential for selling pressure grows. Maintaining a steady position above this range generally reduces anxiety among investors and promotes renewed BTC accumulation behavior.
Widening the analysis to include BTC UTXOs that have aged between six months and two years encompasses market participants from the previous cycle's consolidation stage and subsequent breakout period. The calculated realized price for this investor segment sits close to $74,500, representing a significant premium over current trading levels.
The market value to realized value ratio, known as MVRV, for this particular cohort currently registers at 0.88. When this metric falls beneath 1, it indicates that the investor group is carrying unrealized losses on average.
Following Bitcoin's descent below the $74,500 mark, market participants who made their purchases in the six-month to two-year window transitioned into unrealized loss territory, effectively transforming this price level into a crucial profitability benchmark.
Achieving and maintaining a position above $74,500 would restore the majority of this investor segment to collective profitability, which could potentially diminish selling pressure from those seeking to exit their positions near their cost basis.
Long-term BTC supply reaches highest point in 3 months
According to onchain supply metrics from CryptoQuant, the balance held by long-term holders has returned to approximately 14 million BTC (13.96 million) following its descent to a multi-year bottom on November 21, 2025. This resurgence in aged coin supply suggests persistent holding behavior despite the recent price turbulence.
Should the investors who acquired their positions between six months and 2 years ago decide to maintain their holdings and absorb any selling pressure in the vicinity of their mean entry point, the available supply positioned between $74,500 and $100,000 could diminish at an accelerated pace.
A durable advance beyond $74,500 could restore profitability to a substantial portion of these holdings, possibly redirecting market attention toward available liquidity in the $100,000 vicinity.
Bitcoin's realized cap and capital inflows show stagnation
An increase in BTC's realized cap metric, which calculates the combined value of all coins based on their most recent onchain transfer price, could also indicate a shift in the prevailing trend.
This indicator is currently maintaining levels near cycle peaks, although its growth trajectory has decelerated. The net position change in realized cap has contracted toward a neutral reading of 0%, suggesting that fresh capital inflows are minimal.
Although the realized cap continues to hover near record highs, it displays a downward trajectory, reflecting a decelerating rate of fresh capital entering at elevated cost basis thresholds.
Looking at historical patterns, the final stages of bear market cycles typically exhibit stagnant or declining realized cap metrics, whereas early-stage recoveries commence with stabilization before gaining momentum. A renewed climb in the net position change metric back into the 2–4% territory could offer more definitive confirmation that new capital is flowing back into the market and that accumulation activity is intensifying.