Institutional Demand at 500% of Daily BTC Mining Could Push Bitcoin Toward $96K
Historical data shows BTC typically rallies 24% within a month when institutional buyers consume over five times the daily mined Bitcoin supply.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, suggests Bitcoin (BTC) could surge to $96,000 by June as institutional players acquire more than five times the amount of BTC mined daily.
Historical patterns show 24% average gains following institutional supply absorption
Edwards highlighted in a Monday update that institutional entities have been "slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin's daily mined supply."
Following the April 2024 halving event, Bitcoin's mining operations have generated approximately 450 BTC daily, maintaining supply growth at a relatively consistent level, with the rate of change (ROC, the red line) remaining around 0.0022% as of Monday.
By comparison, the ROC for institutional purchasing (blue) registered approximately 0.0139%, indicating demand momentum accelerating more than five times the pace of fresh supply creation.
The demand surge has been fueled by revitalized ETF inflows combined with consistent BTC acquisitions by Michael Saylor's Strategy. These entities accumulated approximately 70,000 BTC throughout April, significantly outpacing the roughly 13,500 BTC produced by miners in the identical timeframe.
"Every time it's been this high before, price has shot up over the next week," said Edwards, adding:
"The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take us to around $96K."
According to Edwards, historical patterns demonstrate that when institutional demand surpasses 500% of Bitcoin's daily mining output, BTC has typically posted approximately 24% average returns during the subsequent month, which would position the price near $96,000 by June.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has echoed comparable price projections, suggesting Bitcoin could "easily" climb to $95,000, pointing to renewed appetite for spot BTC ETFs alongside additional technical indicators.
Entities holding 100-1,000 BTC add over 61,000 coins in one month
Blockchain analytics reveal the supply compression phenomenon extends well beyond ETFs and institutional corporate purchasers.
Data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin "sharks," defined as entities controlling 100–1,000 BTC, have added more than 61,000 BTC to their holdings during the last 30 days.
Additional investor segments, including "fishes" which control 10–100 BTC and "crabs" managing 1–10 BTC, have similarly functioned as net accumulators throughout this same time window.
The blockchain data demonstrates that medium-sized holders along with retail market participants are consistently absorbing available supply, potentially increasing BTC's probability of reaching $96,000 within the coming weeks should this demand trend continue.
However, certain market analysts advise proceeding with caution, pointing to an active bear flag pattern formation.
Trader Bitbull identified in a Monday analysis that $60,000–$62,000 represents a plausible downside objective should BTC experience a correction from the flag's upper boundary toward its lower support level.
Should a breakdown occur beneath the lower support trendline, it may result in BTC price action dropping below $50,000.