BTC Continues Upward Momentum While Options Markets See Just 25% Probability of $84K by May Close
Options data for Bitcoin indicates limited likelihood of reaching $84,000, though sustained buying from corporate treasuries and spot Bitcoin ETF investors may prove this forecast wrong.
Main highlights:
- The Bitcoin options market suggests minimal probability of BTC achieving the $84,000 mark during May, with monthly futures basis rates also showing signs of market weakness.
- Substantial Bitcoin purchases by publicly traded corporations and increasing capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing miner selling pressure, potentially mitigating downside risks.
Bitcoin (BTC) successfully retook the $78,000 price threshold alongside a general risk-on environment in traditional markets, with the S&P 500 Index reaching a fresh record high on Friday. Notwithstanding a 15% appreciation across the last 30 days, the options market is currently assigning just 25% probability to Bitcoin trading above $84,000 when May concludes.
The derivatives landscape continues to express doubt regarding additional upward price movement, even as institutional demand through spot products maintains strength.
Call (buy) options for Bitcoin carrying a May 29 expiration date and featuring an $84,000 strike were changing hands at 0.0136 BTC, equivalent to $1,063. Given that 27 days remain before these contracts expire, the market-implied likelihood of Bitcoin's price advancing 8% throughout May stands at approximately 25%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin put (sell) options have maintained a consistent premium throughout the previous month, signaling elevated demand among traders seeking protection against price declines.
The delta skew indicator quantifies the difference between put and call option pricing, typically fluctuating within a -6% to +6% band under balanced market conditions. Whenever professional market participants demonstrate reluctance toward accepting downside risk exposure, this metric rises beyond the neutral 6% threshold, a pattern that has persisted throughout the past month. An analogous pattern has been observable within BTC futures trading as well.
Bitcoin's monthly futures basis rate typically maintains a 4% to 8% premium compared to conventional spot trading venues to compensate for capital costs. Nevertheless, this indicator has exhibited softness over the preceding 30 days. The insufficient appetite for leveraged long positions can be partially attributed to Bitcoin's 12% year-to-date decline in 2026.
Corporate Bitcoin holdings and spot ETF purchases accumulate
Although derivatives market participants display minimal conviction that Bitcoin will hit $84,000, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the United States present a contrasting narrative. These investment vehicles absorbed $1.3 billion in net capital inflows throughout March followed by an additional $2 billion during April, pushing aggregate net assets beyond the $100 billion threshold. This figure is frequently utilized as an indicator of institutional investor interest.
In parallel fashion, publicly traded corporations have incorporated substantial Bitcoin allocations into their treasury holdings during the most recent 30-day period. These purchases encompass 56,235 BTC acquired by Strategy (MSTR US), 5,075 BTC purchased by Metaplanet (3350 JP), and 929 BTC bought by Strive (ASST US). Through acquiring quantities exceeding the equivalent of five months' worth of projected Bitcoin mining production, these enterprises are significantly diminishing potential selling pressure from miners.
The absence of strong demand for leveraged long Bitcoin derivative positions does not necessarily negate the possibility that BTC price could achieve $84,000 or surpass that level before May ends. Provided that institutional buying interest continues at robust levels, the current bullish price trajectory should persist.