BTC Bear Market Nearing Final Phase: Critical Price Points to Monitor
With a 44% decline from its $126,000 peak, Bitcoin shows multiple onchain and technical signals indicating the cryptocurrency has progressed into the final phase of its bear cycle.
On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed renewed selling pressure, causing the digital asset's price to fall beneath the psychologically important $70,000 threshold.
Market observers noted that Bitcoin displayed characteristics typical of a bear cycle approaching its conclusion, evidenced by heightened fear sentiment alongside substantial realized and unrealized losses across the network.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin progresses into the final phase of its bear cycle, marked by extreme fear levels and a majority of BTC holdings underwater.
- Elevated unrealized losses combined with a 96% decline in realized profits indicate "demand exhaustion" conditions.
- The $70,000 level stands as the primary BTC threshold to monitor currently, with additional support zones at $65,000-$60,000 below.
Mounting losses for Bitcoin holders
The ongoing Bitcoin bear market has resulted in a price decline exceeding 44% from the cryptocurrency's $126,000 all-time peak, which was established on Oct. 6, 2025.
The decline has driven Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which represents the differential between aggregate profits and losses currently held by market participants, beneath the 0.25 threshold, positioning it within the "hope/fear zone," based on CryptoQuant data.
According to CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader in a Quicktake note, this situation means "roughly 40% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held at a loss."
When combined with the Fear and Greed Index registering "Extreme Fear" at 15, this configuration "reflects pain and uncertainty," the analyst noted, further stating:
"A NUPL recovery above 0.25 would mark a transition into the optimism zone, a shift that has historically aligned with strengthening price momentum."
From a structural perspective, these conditions mirror patterns observed during earlier bear markets, during which the NUPL continued its descent into territory below 0 as Bitcoin established its cyclical bottom.
Upon examining the volume of coins trading at a loss relative to total market capitalization, Glassnode determined that the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of relative unrealized losses has reached equilibrium at 15%.
"Historically, resolving this level of embedded loss requires either time, further price depression, or an extraordinary and sustained influx of fresh capital within a compressed timeframe."
The entity-adjusted realized profit metric for Bitcoin has experienced a dramatic collapse from its July 2025 peak of $3 billion daily to a current level below $0.1 billion.
Representing a contraction exceeding 96%, this development provides "offering further evidence of demand exhaustion," according to Glassnode, which added:
"Contractions of this magnitude are a textbook characteristic of a bear market transitioning into its later stages, where the pool of profitable sellers has been largely depleted, and on-chain liquidity thins to cycle lows."
In the meantime, CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan indicated that despite certain metrics suggesting BTC/USD established a bottom at $60,000, "more consistent and decisive confirmation signals" are necessary to validate a genuine bottom formation.
Critical Bitcoin price thresholds to monitor
Following its rebound from multi-year lows beneath $60,000, the BTC/USD trading pair continues to trade within a confined range featuring $64,000 as the floor and $72,000 as the ceiling.
Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the 1w–1m cohort cost basis positioned at $70,200, "marking the developing support floor," according to Glassnode.
Nevertheless, the cost basis distribution heatmap reveals modest accumulation activity at this level, rendering it "vulnerable." Glassnode elaborated:
"A higher probability of a breakdown below this level cannot be dismissed until a more substantial base of committed buyers is established."
Beneath this level, the subsequent critical threshold to observe is Bitcoin's realized price located around $54,000. The 2022 bear market established its bottom after Bitcoin declined toward its realized price level.
For upside resistance, Glassnode identified the 1m-3m cohort cost basis at $82,200 as representing a significant overhead barrier, aligning with a dense concentration of short-term holder supply positioned above $84,000.
This represents a "cohort that could amplify sell pressure whether price stages a recovery toward those levels or faces a renewed episode of market stress," Glassnode noted.
In a Thursday X post, technical analyst CryptoPatel characterized Bitcoin's recent rally to $76,000 as merely a lower high, stating that the higher time frame structure indicates "lower from here," with the subsequent genuine area of interest located beneath $50,000.
"Even if $76K breaks, there is another bearish order block between $86,000 and $90,000 waiting right above."
According to Cointelegraph's reporting, a daily close beneath the 20-day exponential moving average positioned at $70,303 has the potential to accelerate BTC's price decline toward the $62,500-$60,000 support zone.