Bitcoin's probability of revisiting sub-$60K levels 'nearly zero' with long-term holder supply exceeding 15M BTC
Market analysis indicates Bitcoin faces virtually no risk of sliding beneath $60,000 once more, as long-term participants now control upwards of 71% of the cryptocurrency's circulating supply.
According to recent data revealing that Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders have expanded their control to 71.6% of total supply, the likelihood of BTC declining beneath the $60,000 mark is "extremely slim." Furthermore, a critical technical indicator has shifted to bullish territory for the first time since the month of February.
Analyst suggests BTC price unlikely to form new lows
According to crypto analyst Sykodelic, the probability that Bitcoin will return to fresh lows has "become extremely slim" following the weekly relative strength index (RS) successfully retesting the critical 50 threshold. Historical patterns demonstrate that Bitcoin has typically initiated long-term expansion phases following instances where the RSI climbed back above this threshold after entering oversold conditions.
This recent development occurred 105 days following Bitcoin's weekly RSI descending into oversold conditions for just the fourth time in its recorded history. Skykodelic highlighted that the 2022 market cycle represented the single exception where Bitcoin subsequently established new lows, primarily attributable to the catastrophic FTX exchange collapse, which triggered a market-wide drawdown. During that particular period, the RSI failed to retest 50 throughout the recovery phase.
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are displaying similar sentiment. According to crypto analyst CryptoZeno, Bitcoin's one-year-plus holder metric has reentered the historically "oversold" accumulation zone that came before significant upside cycles witnessed in 2013, 2016, 2019 and late 2022.
CryptoZeno previously noted that market cycle peaks during 2021 and 2017 typically materialized when LTH holder distribution gained momentum. In contrast, the current metrics indicate sustained accumulation and an increasingly constrained available supply of BTC.
This trend finds confirmation in onchain data. The long-term Bitcoin supply has climbed back above 15.04 million BTC for the first time since Oct. 1, 2025, representing 71.6% of the circulating supply.
Bitcoin miners maintain caution during bottom formation
Despite the robust LTH holder data, crypto analyst Pelin Ay noted that BTC miner activity continues to suggest cautious positioning. Binance pool miner reserves declined to 41,915 from 41,987 in May, demonstrating a consistent supply flowing into Binance. Discussing the significance of Binance pool miner reserve data, Ay stated,
Since Binance Pool represents a major share of the global hash rate, its behavior often reflects overall miner psychology before the broader market reacts. Falling reserves usually indicate that operational selling pressure is still continuing.
Miner Position Index (MPI) readings continue to sit below historical panic-selling thresholds, whereas the Puell Multiple remains under 1, indicating ongoing revenue pressure throughout mining operations. The analyst characterized this behavior as a "wait phase" typically observed in proximity to bottom formations.