Bitcoin poised to surge past $125K by end of 2026 before hitting cycle zenith, says Bernstein
Investment firm Bernstein projects Bitcoin will surpass $125,000 in late 2026 en route to $300,000 by 2029 in its baseline forecast, while its optimistic scenario targets $500,000.
Investment research firm Bernstein anticipates that Bitcoin will bounce back from its recent decline, surpassing its 2025 all-time high and establishing fresh milestones in the upcoming years as it approaches the zenith of its traditional market cycle.
According to a research report released on Wednesday and reviewed by Cointelegraph, Bernstein projects Bitcoin (BTC) will climb back to $125,000 by the end of 2026 in both its baseline and optimistic scenarios.
The firm noted that Bitcoin surged 28% during the preceding 10-day period following approximately a 50% decline from its October 2025 all-time high, representing a recovery that may indicate the conclusion of the present bearish phase.
This forecast from the analysts emerges as institutional participants and corporate Bitcoin purchasers assume an increasingly significant position in the marketplace, which Bernstein indicated has offered stronger price floor protection throughout the most recent cycle and resulted in a less severe correction compared to the 75% to 90% drops witnessed in earlier cycles.
Upcoming cycle may propel Bitcoin to $300,000
Under Bernstein's baseline scenario, Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the middle of 2027 ahead of hitting a cyclical high of approximately $300,000 in 2029. The firm's optimistic scenario places the leading cryptocurrency at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.
Bernstein has maintained its extended-term BTC price objective of roughly $1 million by 2033 across both forecasting models.
The forecast from Bernstein relies on Bitcoin's well-documented four-year market cycles, which the firm correlates with the halving event, an occurrence that reduces the quantity of newly minted Bitcoin distributed to miners approximately every four years. The company segments each cycle into four distinct phases: breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation.
The firm subsequently calculates Bitcoin's prospective valuation throughout these cycles by benchmarking it against the marginal production cost of Bitcoin, which represents the estimated expense for the most inefficient mining operations to generate new coins.
We assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will behave in a similar manner to previous 4-year cycles.
Bernstein analysts
In Bernstein's baseline projection, this multiple decreases from 1.4 times at Bitcoin's $125,000 all-time high in 2025 to 1.25 times at a forecasted $300,000 peak in 2029 and approximately 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033.
Strategy may accelerate Bitcoin acquisitions
Bernstein further anticipates that a Bitcoin price recovery will enhance the prospects for Strategy, the globe's most significant corporate holder of Bitcoin. The company possesses 840,447 BTC, representing approximately 4% of Bitcoin's total maximum circulation of 21 million coins.
The research team sustained their "Outperform" assessment on Strategy while reducing the MSTR stock price objective to $350 from $450, referencing intensified equity dilution and their revised Bitcoin cycle forecast. According to Yahoo Finance, MSTR ended trading at $126.83 on Tuesday, advancing 3.4% for the session.
Bernstein indicated that sustained Bitcoin price momentum, coupled with a rebound in Strategy's Stream (STRC) preferred shares to approximately $100, may enable the organization to "go kinetic again" with Bitcoin acquisitions following the sale of around 7,000 BTC in 2026. Yahoo Finance data shows STRC concluded trading at $97.15 on Tuesday.
A recent evaluation from Regime Intelligence suggested that Strategy's Bitcoin treasury holdings might face less vulnerability from a cryptocurrency market collapse than from an extended period without capital-market accessibility, a threat that could jeopardize its capacity to finance approximately $1.76 billion in yearly commitments without liquidating BTC holdings.