Bitcoin-gold price gap highlights diverging priorities of individual investors versus central banks: Expert
21Shares' head of macro examines Bitcoin's resilience during recent Middle Eastern conflicts, contrasting it with gold's decline beneath the $4,500 threshold and critical technical indicators.
The contrasting performance between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold throughout 2026 reflects two fundamentally different buyer demographics, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, a provider of crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) solutions.
Central bank purchases have been the primary driver behind gold's three-year rally, whereas Bitcoin ownership remains predominantly concentrated among retail investors rather than institutional finance entities, Coltman explained in his conversation with Cointelegraph. According to his analysis:
"Physical gold has a greater geopolitical strategic role currently, as the asset of choice for state actors who want to store wealth in a way that is protected from rival powers. This has meant that it has traded with greater sensitivity to deteriorating international relations."
In contrast, BTC offers greater practical value for everyday individuals who might rely on it as a critical "lifeline" during periods when local banking systems collapse amid crisis situations, particularly when traditional financial infrastructure becomes inaccessible.
"Shortly after the conflict started, both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges were shut down following missile and drone strikes from Iran," representing what he characterized as a "stark reminder" of the critical importance of round-the-clock access during wartime scenarios or other emergency circumstances.
In his discussion with Cointelegraph, Coltman emphasized that the negative correlation between BTC and gold suggests that portfolio managers should maintain positions in both assets to capitalize on the distinct advantages each one offers.
Persistent macroeconomic turbulence and geopolitical tensions throughout recent years propelled gold to an unprecedented peak of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026.
Nevertheless, increased volatility pulled the precious metal downward to approximately $4,497 per ounce, sparking fresh discussions among market experts regarding gold's effectiveness as a store of value asset, and its anticipated performance relative to Bitcoin in future years.
Market experts remain divided on gold versus BTC performance outlook
Over the next three-year period, Bitcoin will likely deliver superior returns compared to gold, based on macroeconomist Lyn Alden's assessment.
"It's usually a pendulum between the two. If gold has gone up as much as it did, the entire diminishing return story per cycle is going to be erased in the coming one, too," Alden said.
On the other hand, Ray Dalio, a former hedge fund manager, maintains the position that BTC will never supplant gold as the primary store-of-value asset since it continues to behave like a risk-on investment with strong correlation to technology stocks, whereas gold maintains its established position as a reserve asset within the global banking system.