Bernstein: Prediction Markets Set for World Cup Windfall, Coinbase to Lead Gains
According to Bernstein analysts, prediction markets stand to gain billions from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, creating significant opportunities for platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood to onboard new users.
Prediction markets are poised for a watershed moment during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Coinbase standing out as a primary beneficiary, a fresh research analysis from Bernstein suggests.
In the report released Thursday, Bernstein's research team projects that the tournament's expanded format will drive over $3 billion in additional sports betting handle alongside $5 billion to $10 billion in extra prediction market volume from consumers, as 104 scheduled matches turn traditionally quiet months for online sports wagering into a peak activity period.
The global soccer governing body FIFA anticipates approximately 6 billion viewers will tune in to the month-long competition, representing an increase from the estimated 5 billion who watched the 2022 World Cup held in Qatar. Tournament matches begin today.
According to Bernstein's analysis, Coinbase has positioned itself as a dominant force in this space, eclipsing $100 million in yearly prediction market revenue by March, mere months following the product's debut.
The crypto trading platform introduced prediction markets across the entire United States via a strategic partnership with Kalshi, as previously covered by Cointelegraph, enabling customers in every US state to participate in event-based contracts spanning sports competitions, political developments, cultural phenomena and additional real-world events.
The tournament will also serve as a catalyst for Robinhood. According to Bernstein's research, the financial services company plans to utilize the global sporting event as the launchpad for Rothera, its proprietary US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange and clearinghouse dedicated to prediction market operations.
[W]e expect prediction markets to be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood
Bernstein's team stated in their analysis, projecting approximately $586 million in prediction market-generated revenue for Robinhood throughout 2026.
Sports emerge as prediction markets' biggest growth driver
Among crypto's most rapidly expanding applications, prediction markets continue growing despite a broader slowdown across digital asset markets.
Research published in April by Bitget Wallet in collaboration with Polymarket revealed that prediction market trading volume climbed to nearly $26 billion monthly, with retail participants representing over 80% of the user base.
The research additionally highlighted a fundamental transformation in how users engage with these platforms. Instead of drawing participants exclusively around singular events like elections, prediction markets now successfully maintain user engagement across multiple ongoing categories, with sports-related betting establishing itself as the dominant segment.
During March specifically, sports wagering represented more than 39% of all prediction market trading volumes, based on data from Bitget Wallet and Polygon.
On Wednesday, the CFTC released proposed regulations governing prediction markets indicating that contracts tied to sporting events are typically not against the public interest despite federal legislation categorizing such activity as "gaming."