April Could See Bitcoin Hit $80K According to Chart Analysis: The Potential Path Forward
A combination of chart patterns, pending overhead resistance absorption, and changing market psychology points toward an increased probability of Bitcoin climbing to $80,000 during April.
The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward momentum heading into Friday's Wall Street trading session, pushing past the $73,000 threshold. Market participants are now setting their sights on a potential return to $80,000 before April concludes, supported by multiple technical indicators suggesting that bulls are regaining dominance over the cryptocurrency marketplace.
Bitcoin invalidates bearish technical formation
Earlier this week on Tuesday, Bitcoin nullified what had initially been identified as a bear pennant formation on its daily price chart.
The BTC/USD trading pair successfully broke through the pennant pattern's upper boundary at the $70,000 level, surging by as much as 7% to reach a six-week peak of $73,300 by Friday's trading. This upward breakout was accompanied by elevated trading volumes, suggesting increased confidence and conviction supporting the price advance.
The cryptocurrency also successfully recaptured several critical support levels, notably the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA, blue line), along with the 20-day EMA (red wave), and the 50-day EMA (orange wave) positioned at $68,350, $69,520, and $70,580, in that order.
This development concurrently boosted the probability of a bullish reversal pattern forming as a symmetrical triangle.
This particular pattern emerges when an asset creates progressively lower peaks and higher troughs, squeezing into a narrowing consolidation zone. The pattern typically resolves itself when price action penetrates one of the converging trendlines and advances by a distance equivalent to the pattern's widest point.
For Bitcoin specifically, the technical target calculated from breaking above the upper boundary suggests a price objective of $87,000, representing approximately 20% gains from current trading levels.
The bullish divergence visible in the relative strength index (RSI) indicates that positive momentum has been gradually accumulating throughout the past two months, further supporting BTC's potential for upward price movement.
The next significant obstacle for Bitcoin lies at the 100-day EMA (blue) positioned around $75,400.
According to previous Cointelegraph coverage, a price rejection at that technical level would undermine the breakout's validity and increase the likelihood of a downward correction.
Blockchain metrics suggest Bitcoin faces ceiling at $80,000
Information sourced from TradingView indicates that Bitcoin has remained confined within a $60,000–$70,000 consolidation range for more than six weeks, experiencing several unsuccessful attempts to maintain sustainable momentum above the $72,000 mark.
The risk indicator provided by Glassnode identifies substantial overhead resistance positioned between the true market mean at $78,000 and the cost basis level for short-term holders approximating $80,000.
"Any rally into this zone is likely to encounter meaningful distribution pressure from recent buyers seeking to exit at or near breakeven."
The data visualization presented above supports the perspective that potential recovery rallies could face obstacles around the true market mean and the STH realized price, similar to patterns observed throughout 2023.
Additionally, Glassnode's Entity-Adjusted UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which illustrates the price levels at which currently existing BTC UTXOs were originally generated, indicates that BTC price action has entered a comparatively sparse zone spanning from $72,000 to $82,000, characterized by diminished resistance levels.
This suggests BTC could potentially experience more unrestricted price movement in the immediate term throughout this range, provided momentum continues, with the upper boundary likely capped around $82,000-$85,000. This particular zone represents where market participants accumulated in excess of 1.3 million BTC.
Simultaneously, the cost-basis distribution heatmap for BTC displays significant clustering between the $78,000 and $84,000 levels, indicating a viable near-term trajectory toward this price zone.
Prediction market probabilities for $80,000 BTC in April climb higher
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform powered by cryptocurrency where participants purchase contracts tied to real-world event outcomes, is demonstrating an unmistakable bullish sentiment shift for Bitcoin throughout April.
Market participants currently attribute 26% probability that BTC/USD will achieve the $80,000 milestone during April, representing a 5% probability increase within the previous 24 hours. The $75,000 price target commands even greater confidence at 76%.
Concurrently, the probability assessment for BTC price declining to $65,000 during April has been valued lower compared to earlier projections, indicating that market participants are reducing their expectations for downside price action.