Quantum Computing Poses Risk to $450B Worth of Bitcoin, Experts Warn
According to one analyst, Bitcoin's path to new all-time highs may be blocked unless developers address mounting quantum computing vulnerabilities.
Research co-authored by Google, Caltech, and quantum technology startup Oratomic reveals that millions of Bitcoin (BTC) tokens stored in certain wallet types may face exposure to quantum computing attacks in the future.
Key takeaways:
- The primary vulnerability lies with legacy addresses where public keys have been previously exposed.
- Over 85,000 BTC from wallets dating back to Satoshi's era or inactive for a decade have been transferred within the last year, indicating potential repositioning by early adopters.
Are legacy BTC holders already taking action?
According to estimates presented in Google's research paper, approximately 6.7 million BTC valued at more than $450 billion resides in wallet addresses that may become susceptible to exploitation should quantum computers achieve sufficient capability to compromise Bitcoin's underlying cryptographic security.
Within this figure is a substantial concentration of early-generation wallets each containing 50 BTC, remnants from Bitcoin's nascent mining period when the block reward stood at that amount. A significant portion of these coins from the "Satoshi-era" have sat dormant for extended periods without any movement.
The research paper from Caltac and Oratomic asserted that quantum computing technology could potentially compromise a typical blockchain network within approximately 10 days.
In the meantime, analyst Kyledoops suggested that the extended-term vulnerability is primarily focused on inactive addresses, and transferring these holdings to newer address types could mitigate quantum-related risks, a cautionary measure that appears to be resonating with certain early Bitcoin adopters.
According to publicly documented transactions, more than 85,000 BTC originating from Satoshi-era wallets or addresses dormant for over a decade have been moved during the past year, although the actual figure could potentially be higher.
Additionally, it's worth noting that these research papers lack complete independence. Several of the authors maintain financial interests in Oratomic, with six being direct employees of the company, which raises questions about whether the findings might align with the firm's business objectives.
Quantum concerns could prevent Bitcoin from reaching new ATHs
The Bitcoin price experienced stagnation after analyst Nic Carter brought widespread attention to the Google research through a viral post on Tuesday, with BTC subsequently declining by 3.5%.
Bitcoin continues to face downward pressure as numerous analysts emphasized the quantum computing threat. Among them was Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment, who stated that BTC will "never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes Quantum risk seriously."
Analyst MacnBTC suggested the possibility of additional BTC price deterioration over the upcoming months, stating:
"Could see us bottoming 2026-2027, and have our last bullrun before this becomes a real threat."
However, others such as Bitcoin security expert Jameson Lopp expressed more cautious perspectives.
"These papers both show advancements in algorithmic efficiency and quantum computing theory, but one should not overlook the assumptions underlying these claims," he said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
"Progress is clearly continuing. How long do we have before a cryptographically relevant quantum computer can be built? That's still anyone's guess."
At the same time, certain price prediction models have already forecasted a potential BTC bottom within the $40,000–$50,000 price range driven by ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, including heightened oil prices.