Could Bitcoin's Bull Market Return by September? Key Bitcoin Developments This Week
Discussion about a potential Bitcoin bear-market reversal intensifies as BTC navigates macro turbulence driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and anticipated inflation reports.
The new trading week for Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off with volatility as market participants prepare for additional macro uncertainty ahead.
Key points:
- Bitcoin experiences a pullback approaching $62,000, though one analyst already anticipates the bear market could conclude by September.
- A fresh BTC price "death cross" emerges as another indicator suggesting the bear market might have only a few months remaining.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions resurface as the Strait of Hormuz shuts down to oil shipments, creating headwinds for risk assets.
- Critical US CPI and PPI reports are scheduled for release, while Fed chairman Kevin Warsh prepares to present future policy direction to congressional members.
- Significant selling activity among midsize Bitcoin holders reveals diverging sentiment across different investor categories.
Bitcoin bear-market floor expected "around September or October"
Bitcoin remains near its weakest price levels since the third quarter of 2024, yet one forecast already projects the bull market's comeback could arrive as early as September.
Through a Monday post on X, market analyst Ryker challenged the conventional four-year cycle framework of bullish and bearish market phases.
"I disagree with this chart," the trader stated, sharing a visual comparison of historical market cycles for BTC/USD dating back to 2013.
According to Ryker's analysis, because market consensus anticipates the 2026 bear-market floor hasn't yet materialized, institutional market makers will preemptively move ahead of this expectation and trigger a sustained recovery earlier than anticipated, catching the maximum number of market participants unprepared.
"Most people believe that the next Bitcoin bull cycle will begin in 2027. However, market makers know exactly what the crowd is thinking," the analyst explained.
"I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity. You shouldn't trust this chart."
This perspective emerges as numerous BTC price metrics start displaying reversal signals for the first occurrence since the previous bear market concluded in late 2022.
Nevertheless, as previously covered by Cointelegraph, historical patterns indicate that the current bear market remains too immature to reverse before year-end, with present development standing at approximately 70%.
Analyst identifies traditional BTC price bear-market "death cross"
Following the weekly close, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure, declining to regional lows around $62,500, according to TradingView data.
This movement strengthened the zone surrounding $64,000 as near-term resistance, with numerous attempts to breach higher throughout the previous week all resulting in rejection.
"Crypto choppy, so are stocks," market participant Daan Crypto Trades noted in recent commentary on X.
"Bitcoin remains rangebound between this ~$61K-$65K region and is right in the middle here."
Trader Lennaert Snyder expressed skepticism regarding even a retest of range peaks, identifying $63,600 as the subsequent level for establishing a BTC short position.
"Orderflow also confirms spot and perps are selling and funding rates are still quite high, so some downward pressure would be healthy," the analyst remarked Monday regarding exchange order-book information.
According to Snyder, BTC/USD falling to new lows beneath $57,800 represents the "most healthy scenario."
A relatively bullish perspective arrived from analyst Jelle, who continued to anticipate a short-term recovery toward $70,000.
Examining extended time horizons, Jelle highlighted the recent "death cross" appearing on weekly charts potentially establishing a dependable base for prolonged upward movement.
This pattern encompasses the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs), with the previous death cross materializing in September 2022, mere months ahead of the last bear-market floor.
"In the past, by the time this signal flashed, Bitcoin's bear market was nearly ending. More and more signs confirming my belief that accumulation season is back," Jelle communicated to X followers.
Hormuz shutdown disrupts oil, equities creating crypto headwind
Escalating US-Iran tensions have quickly reemerged as a significant macro volatility catalyst this trading week.
During the weekend period, Iranian authorities announced the Strait of Hormuz — a critical international oil shipping channel — would remain closed indefinitely.
These developments followed multiple escalatory incidents that shattered the delicate ceasefire previously established, with financial markets responding accordingly.
US WTI crude oil prices climbed back to $75 per barrel on Monday, representing nearly 12% gains from July lows.
In response, Nic Puckrin, CEO and cofounder of cryptocurrency education platform Coin Bureau, identified additional stress indicators resulting from renewed conflict.
"US 2yr T-bill yields just shot above 2.35% - the highest level in 16 months!" he posted on X.
"The Iran situation is pushing up oil prices & inflation expectations. It's saying: Interest rates are going to be higher for longer."
Puckrin referenced two-year US Treasury note yields and their probable influence on monetary policy, noting that elevated interest rates historically create headwinds for cryptocurrency and risk-oriented assets.
Despite US stock futures experiencing a tentative weekly opening, the persistent stream of negative Iran-related news appeared evident in their relatively subdued response to oil-supply concerns. Consequently, certain market observers dismissed the likelihood of deeper market corrections based exclusively on Middle-East developments.
"This correction has, in my opinion, little to do with everything in the Middle East," cryptocurrency trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe contended.
Van de Poppe alternatively directed attention toward Japanese bond markets as the yen hovered near multidecade lows against the US dollar.
"It has a lot more to do with the Japanese Yield jumping again," he elaborated.
"I expect to see a breakdown in Yield over the next 1-2 weeks, which would automatically lead to a positive breakout in Bitcoin."
Fed's Warsh scheduled to testify alongside CPI, PPI data releases
Beyond the backdrop of Iranian instability, US financial markets must also navigate critical macroeconomic data publications in upcoming days.
Most prominent among these releases are the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. Both represent the final data points before the Federal Reserve convenes to determine interest-rate adjustments at month's end.
As previously documented by Cointelegraph, Iranian conflict ramifications have manifested in US inflation measurements for multiple months, making any unexpected readings in CPI or PPI a crucial potential catalyst for risk-asset volatility.
"We have a highly eventful week ahead of us," market resource The Kobeissi Letter communicated to X followers.
Shortly following Tuesday's CPI release, newly appointed Fed chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
Since assuming leadership in May, Warsh has navigated challenging territory, balancing mounting inflation against pressure from US president Donald Trump advocating for rate reductions. During his inaugural interest-rate meeting, he maintained a hawkish stance, refraining from providing explicit indications that policy loosening might occur.
Based on CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market expectations currently anticipate rates remaining unchanged until September, when prevailing consensus forecasts a 0.25% increase.
In commentary released late last week, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company characterized rates as caught in a "tug-of-war," while highlighting US 30-year Treasury yields as a potential source of market tension moving forward.
"A breakout in long-term rates may present obstacles for the rally, but the S&P 500 is nearing completion of a short-term bullish chart pattern," the analysis cautioned.
The current week additionally features approximately 10% of S&P 500 constituents releasing earnings reports.
Midsize BTC holder distribution reaches multimonth peaks
Fresh analysis of Bitcoin holder selling behavior strengthens arguments for a BTC price recovery during July.
Released by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant on Monday, information tracking addresses containing between 100 and 1,000 BTC reveals a substantial new distribution occurrence.
"Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of about 67,000 BTC on July 13, the cohort's strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached roughly 47,000 BTC," contributor Amr Taha explained in a blog post.
Throughout the preceding three months, this cohort's behavior has demonstrated inconsistency, with late April alternatively exhibiting notable accumulation.
Taha observes, however, that these 100-1,000 BTC holders historically decrease holdings preceding bullish BTC price reversals.
"Historically, extreme accumulation by this cohort appeared near local Bitcoin price highs in January and April 2026, while the strong distribution recorded after February 19 was followed by a price rebound," he added.
"The current signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it places Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in mid-sized investor behavior."
CryptoQuant information further demonstrates that deposits to both Binance and Coinbase Prime actually decreased during mid-July.
During the previous week, Cointelegraph documented profit-taking by short-term holders as BTC/USD climbed to $64,000 — activity that analysis similarly identified as a feature "characteristic of a bull market."