BTC Confronts Most 'Difficult' Market Period Following Multiple $72K Rejections
Bitcoin faces its most mentally taxing cycle stage as selling pressure mounts and increasing losses point to extended market turbulence with additional downside risk looming.
Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to penetrate the $72,000 resistance level on Tuesday, while blockchain data indicated that BTC had entered the most "challenging" stage of its market cycle.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin price remains confined within a range after experiencing another rejection at the $72,000 level.
- Increasing supply at a loss indicates the most "psychologically challenging" stage of the bear market has arrived.
- Bitcoin needs to overcome resistance at $72,000 to have an opportunity to conclude the downward trend.
Bitcoin encounters the most frustrating cycle stage
Bitcoin has entered a phase of "elevated uncertainty" characterized by market participants showing greater hesitation rather than confidence, according to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_.
"A combination of 3 key onchain metrics suggests that the market may be navigating one of the most psychologically challenging phases of the cycle," MorenoDV_ said.
Among these indicators is the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, a measurement that monitors phases of investor sentiment within the BTC market, which currently displays a bear market consolidation stage following the sharp decline from cycle peaks.
This represents "a period that historically tends to frustrate both bulls and bears," the analyst said.
The apparent demand metric provides additional support to this assessment. The chart displayed above demonstrates that the surge in Bitcoin's apparent demand during mid-February proved temporary, "with demand quickly slipping back into negative territory," MorenoDV_ said.
The absence of consistent buying pressure demonstrates that market participants continue to exercise caution and show reluctance to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin at present price levels.
Additionally, the Long-Term Holder SOPR has fallen below the critical threshold of 1, indicating that even long-term investors have begun realizing losses.
"Historically, this phase tends to emerge in the later stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty begins to erode even the strongest conviction."
At the same time, Bitcoin supply in loss has resumed its upward trajectory, presently nearing the 40–45% range, climbing from 22% in mid-January.
Throughout history, such levels have emerged during significant corrective phases, as witnessed in 2015, 2019, and 2022, demonstrating escalating market stress and capitulation among those selling.
The chart presented below demonstrates that macro market bottoms have historically formed when supply in loss climbs above 50%.
"Supply in loss is increasing again, indicating rising market stress," CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu said, adding:
"If historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom."
As Cointelegraph reported, analysts forecast Bitcoin extending its bear market into late 2026, with some predictions as low as $30,000.
Bitcoin's critical resistance level remains $72,000
Bitcoin has executed multiple unsuccessful attempts to climb above $72,000, a price level that has acted as a ceiling on the price since early March.
"Another rejection at the range high for the time being," said analyst Daan Crypto Trades in an X post on Tuesday, referring to Bitcoin's pause below $72,000 on Tuesday, adding:
"Still in the range and markets are in general very indecisive."
An accompanying chart demonstrated that $72,000 represented the critical level to monitor on BTC's four-hour chart. Surpassing this level might attract fresh buyers if the price manages to break out of its trading range.
Fellow analyst BenCrypz said a clean breakout above $72,000 "could trigger stronger bullish momentum and open the path toward higher levels."
"However, if this resistance holds again, BTC could rotate back toward the $69K mid-range or even revisit the $66K support zone."
