Bitcoin surges past 50-week MA: Could this signal bear market conclusion?
Crossing above the 50-week moving average has traditionally signaled bear market endings for Bitcoin, though experts caution that a single weekly close may not be sufficient to validate the start of a fresh bull cycle.
For the first time in over 10 months, Bitcoin has concluded a week trading above its 50-week moving average, a milestone that certain market observers suggest might indicate the conclusion of Bitcoin's prolonged bear market phase.
On Sunday, Bitcoin wrapped up the trading week at a price of $81,159 on the Coinbase exchange, surpassing its 50-week moving average which stood at $78,788, as reported by TradingView data. The previous instance of a weekly close exceeding this moving average occurred on Nov. 9, 2025.
Back in August, Alex Thorn, who leads firmwide research at Galaxy Research, characterized the 50-week moving average as functioning like a resistance level throughout bear market periods.
"When looking at four out of the five bear markets that have completed, once price initially breached the 50-week moving average heading upward, the bear market's lowest point was conclusively established," he noted in his research publication.
"In essence, successfully recapturing the 50w MA has historically served as confirmation that a bear market has reached its conclusion," Thorn further explained.
This most recent weekly close also represents Bitcoin's strongest weekly closing price over the past four months, based on TradingView's historical data.
Earlier in the week on Tuesday, prior to the official weekly close, Ben Simpson, who founded the crypto research firm Collective Shift, stated that witnessing Bitcoin close above its 50-week moving average would represent "the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market." Simpson noted that Bitcoin experienced gains ranging from 700% to 900% following breaks above this technical level during 2017, 2020 and 2023.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Ryan Lee, who serves as chief analyst at Bitget, explained that this recent weekly close strengthened the argument that Bitcoin's recovery phase was now in progress.
"Throughout previous market cycles, successfully reclaiming this particular level has typically occurred after the primary bottom was put in place and longer-term bullish momentum had begun its recovery process."
Nevertheless, Lee emphasized that a single weekly close above this level was insufficient to definitively confirm that Bitcoin had established its cyclical bottom point.
"The critical factor moving forward is whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the 50-week average and continue establishing higher lows," he explained. "Historical data shows we have witnessed unsuccessful reclaim attempts during past cycles, especially when macroeconomic conditions continued to present challenges."
Galaxy issued a similar warning back in August, noting that despite the 50-week moving average being a historically robust indicator for bear market conclusions, this signal cannot be considered completely foolproof.
Out of 13 instances where weekly price action crossed back above the 50-week moving average, two of these crossings were subsequently followed by prices reaching a lower low, with both occurrences happening during the 2021-2022 bear market period.
Lee indicated that the overall market environment was nonetheless more robust compared to earlier months this year, highlighting Bitcoin's substantial recovery from the July lows around $57,000. Lee pointed out that repeated liquidation events have also eliminated excessive leverage that had accumulated within the marketplace, and indicators suggest institutional demand may be returning.
In the meantime, Craig Cobb, a cryptocurrency trader, shared with Cointelegraph that the 50-week moving average was not among the indicators he was monitoring to assess whether a bull market had commenced.
Cobb explained he was focusing instead on the $83,000 price level as a critical threshold for Bitcoin, "which will mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart and therefore the trend is no longer down."
His secondary evaluation criterion involves examining Bitcoin's three-month timeframe chart. Within this framework, Cobb stated he is watching for a sequence of red quarterly candles that must conclude with a green candle, which is then followed by a subsequent candle that breaks through the green candle's peak.
According to Cobb, this red-to-green candle transition has materialized 15 times throughout Bitcoin's trading history. Among those 15 occurrences, the peak of the initial green candle was later surpassed in 11 instances, and every single one of those 11 price movements ultimately resulted in a new all-time high being achieved.
"So combine $83,000 being broken and the close of the September three-month candle, then a break of the high and I will say the bull market has begun," said Cobb.