SBF Pardon Probability Falls on Prediction Platforms Following Parents' Media Appearance
Prediction market data suggests that Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced former chief executive of FTX, faces increasingly slim prospects of receiving presidential clemency in the current year.
The prospects of Sam Bankman-Fried, the former chief executive of FTX, securing a presidential pardon appeared bleak throughout the year, and a fresh decline on forecasting platforms indicates that conditions are worsening rather than improving.
The two leading forecasting platforms operating in the United States, Polymarket and Kalshi, currently place the probability of Bankman-Fried obtaining presidential clemency this year at 11% and 9%, respectively.
The probability of clemency has declined by 1% on Kalshi and 2% on Polymarket following a CNN media appearance on March 21 featuring Bankman-Fried's parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried. During the appearance, both individuals articulated their reasons for contesting their son's fraud conviction.
While the shift may appear modest, the media appearance and the public appeals requesting a reassessment of the case have generated fresh attention to the involvement of Bankman-Fried's parents.
Bankman and Fried challenge FTX narrative
During a fresh media appearance with CNN's Michael Smerconish, Fried and Bankman asserted that the ruling against their son was erroneous. "There's an appeal on the case, but we don't think it's fraud," Bankman said.
Both Fried and Bankman acknowledged that Alameda Research had taken customer funds from their son's trading platform FTX. However, Bankman contended that the funds "were not used improperly." Regarding the exchange, "you were able to put in money, and you were able to borrow money. Alameda acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money."
The assertion made by Bankman and Fried contradicts the prevailing public narrative surrounding the case, one in which they themselves participated. Bankman functioned as a compensated advisor to FTX, primarily focused on the exchange's initiatives related to "effective altruism," while Fried operated as a political consultant, according to the CNN appearance.
FTX made attempts to pursue legal action against them while the exchange underwent restructuring in 2023. Through a filing in the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, FTX aimed to recover millions of dollars that it alleged Bankman and Fried "fraudulently transferred and misappropriated."
Bankman played a key role in perpetuating this culture of misrepresentations and gross mismanagement and helped cover up allegations that would have exposed the fraud committed by the FTX Insiders
Primarily, FTX alleged that "Bankman and Fried discussed with Bankman-Fried the transfer to them of a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in The Bahamas." The exchange demanded the return of both of these funds and of the luxury property.
The legal action was ultimately dismissed without prejudice in February 2025. This indicates that the case remains open for potential future action and the plaintiffs retain the option to refile at a subsequent time and alternative venue.
One year following, in February 2026, Fried submitted an appeal on her son's behalf. Court documents submitted to the New York Southern District Court stated that fresh testimony, "would have refuted three principal claims the Government made about FTX's financial condition on which its allegations of fraud rested." These included that:
- FTX was insolvent on Nov. 11, 2022,
- There was no prospect that customers would be repaid, and
- Alameda regularly ran a multi-billion-dollar deficit in its account on FTX.
In statements to CNN, Bankman asserted that "the money was always there" and that Alameda "always had more than enough security to cover everything." He stated that everyone has already received their payments; "the money never left the companies."
Fried stated that "all the money was turned over by Sam voluntarily when there was a liquidity crisis. All the assets ended up in the estate in FTX which was taken over by the debtors, so-called debtors, who ran the bankruptcy. All the money, it was there, every penny of it."
Looking for a pardon
The appeal submission also requested a change of judge, alleging "many instances of extreme prejudice" that Judge Lewis Kaplan demonstrated toward Bankman-Fried throughout the trial.
During the media appearance, Fried asserted that "Sam's prosecution was essentially political." She continued that the "Biden administration had decided to destroy crypto, to strangle the baby in the crib, if I can use that horrible metaphor."
Instead of explicitly stating the administration would not legalize crypto and detailing how it would penalize violators, "they quite deliberately tried to sabotage the crypto industry behind the scenes."
She additionally alleged the prosecutions were being utilized for political advancement. "I am describing a part of the Biden administration that I think did really bad things," she said.
Bankman-Fried contributed substantial political donations to the Biden administration and to Democratic lawmakers. However, during the CNN appearance, his parents worked to separate him from liberal politics.
Bankman stated, "Sam came to DC and did contribute to Biden. But by the time he got to DC, he had had bad experiences with the Biden administration on crypto and on business in general."
"He ended up giving at least as much to Republicans. To think of Sam as just a liberal Democrat was never true," he said.
Bankman-Fried personally has worked to minimize any backing he'd provided to Democratic politicians. During the previous year, he informed the media that he was "really frustrated and disappointed with what I saw of, you know, Biden's administration of the Democratic Party."
He additionally attempted to draw parallels between himself and Trump concerning his prosecution and dissatisfaction with Judge Kaplan. Kaplan determined Trump guilty of sexual abuse and defamation, granting the plaintiff E. Jean Carroll $88 million in damages.
His parents reinforced these assertions and seemed to make a straightforward appeal to Trump. When questioned, "What does Sam Bankman-Fried's mother want to say to the President of the United States?" Fried responded, "I think that Sam was a victim of an out-of-control prosecution and I know that Trump himself feels he was."
I would say also that being one of the most brilliant, talented young men of this generation and the amount of good that he can do in this world, if he is free to live a life he wants, it would be of enormous benefit to the economy, to a lot of things that Trump cares about in this world. He [Trump] ought to regard Sam as a huge asset going forward for the country.
Presidential pardons have evolved into an industry of their own. An examination by the Campaign Legal Center revealed that Trump typically grants pardons to allies in return for loyalty, compensates people who violated the law on his behalf or, significantly, provides brokered pardons, "where deep-pocketed individuals hire well-connected lobbyists or political fixers to secure clemency."
During the latest campaign for a pardon, Pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis stated to Politico, "I hope the president doesn't fall for that. [...] He hurt a lot of people." Trump personally suggested to The New York Times that he would not grant Bankman-Fried clemency.
As reported by Bloomberg, Fried and Bankman have been investigating methods to obtain a pardon for their son since Trump assumed office in January of last year. This purportedly included consulting with lawyers and "other figures considered to be in Trump's orbit."
On March 18, Bankman-Fried published a post via legal proxies, endorsing Trump's decision to bomb Iran. Polymarket probabilities indicate the likelihood of a US/Iran ceasefire by year's end at 78%, approximately 68 points above a pardon for Bankman-Fried.
