Data reveals that 99.99% of Polymarket users should keep their regular jobs
Although approximately 16% of Polymarket participants show profits, an extremely small percentage have achieved earnings substantial and steady enough to consider leaving traditional employment.
According to fresh data analysis, a mere 0.015% of individuals trading on Polymarket can consistently generate monthly earnings of $5,000 or higher, indicating that the concept of abandoning traditional employment to pursue prediction market trading full-time remains impractical for the vast majority of participants.
Research published Monday by crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov revealed that although close to 1% of Polymarket participants succeeded in earning above $5,000 during a single month, merely 0.1% could replicate this achievement in the subsequent month, and an even smaller 0.015% maintained such earnings across four consecutive months.
Consumer Shield reports that the typical monthly salary in the United States stands at approximately $5,220.
Among the most popular applications in the cryptocurrency space, prediction markets have emerged as a leading use case, allowing participants to wager on a diverse range of outcomes spanning politics, sports, financial performance, and cultural happenings.
The majority of prediction market platforms operate using binary "yes" and "no" shares with values ranging from $0 to $1, representing the perceived likelihood of outcomes. Participants generate returns by purchasing shares they believe are undervalued and subsequently selling at higher prices, or by maintaining positions in winning outcomes that resolve at $1 upon event completion.
The analysis conducted by Sergeenkov was presented in context with a story about Logan Sudeith, a previous financial risk analyst who departed from traditional employment to focus on prediction markets, successfully generating $100,000 in profits during December.
Additionally, Sergeenkov drew attention to a social media post from "Tulip King," a former analyst at Messari, who declared in November that "Polymarket is the easiest place in crypto to make six figures right now."
Nevertheless, the data compiled by Sergeenkov demonstrated that a total of just 840 wallet addresses (approximately 0.033% of all Polymarket participants) have accumulated profits exceeding $100,000.
It's worth noting that these wallet addresses don't exclusively represent retail traders, as professional market participants employed by hedge funds and similar financial institutions are also actively engaged in prediction market trading.
"Less experienced users tend to trade less successfully,"Sergeenkov noted.
Most successful traders make profits and bounce
Even the more profitable traders fail to maintain long-term participation, according to Sergeenkov, who observed that among 6,600 wallet addresses averaging monthly profits exceeding $5,000, only 172 continued trading for more than a year.
"That's 2.6%. Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave,"Sergeenkov said.
The analysis performed by Sergeenkov came with certain constraints. The analyst acknowledged that his research focused exclusively on realized gains and losses, although he maintained that resolved markets account for 96% of total trading volume.
The dataset examined spanned from April 2024 through April 1, 2026.