CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Could Reclaim Critical 20-Month Moving Average En Route to Fresh All-Time Highs
Analysis from CryptoQuant's market cycle signals indicator suggests BTC price movements are mirroring historical patterns, potentially gearing up to retake an important moving average before challenging new all-time highs.
The leading cryptocurrency is making efforts to push past an "inflection frontier" that has traditionally served as a launching pad for advances toward new macro peaks.
Key points:
- According to a CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin (BTC) could advance to fresh all-time highs provided it manages to breach its 20-month moving average positioned at $87,165.
- The market cycle signals metric indicated that BTC/USD is positioning itself to recapture this "inflection frontier," a level it surrendered in December 2025.
- CryptoQuant's bull-bear market cycle indicator persistently displays Bitcoin as remaining within a bull market phase.
Analysis: Bitcoin "reset" complete as key trend line reappears
Information sourced from the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that BTC/USD has initiated a renewed confrontation with its 20-month simple moving average (SMA).
The 20-month SMA, currently positioned at $87,165 as of Oct. 16, represents the trend line that serves as the foundation for the widely-recognized Bollinger Bands metric. This metric, in turn, provides the underlying framework for CryptoQuant's market cycle signals tool, designed to identify Bitcoin's current location within its market cycle.
The Bollinger Bands methodology employs standard deviation to establish an upper and lower band surrounding the 20-month SMA. At present, these bands are located at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. Within CryptoQuant's indicator framework, the region between the lower band and SMA is characterized as an "accumulation base," whereas the SMA itself is designated as an "inflection frontier," representing a previous instance of investor capitulation when price descended below it from higher levels, most recently occurring in December 2025.
As Bitcoin currently positions itself to test the capitulation zone from the lower side, historical patterns demonstrate that successful penetrations of this level have resulted in new cycle peaks.
Just over a year after the all-time high (ATH) of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its 'reset,'
CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain
Although Bollinger Bands are not designed to provide explicit buy and sell signals, the market cycle signals methodology identifies "smart money" as taking profits when BTC/USD approaches its upper band. Despite this band currently residing just beneath Bitcoin's latest all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025, CryptoQuant anticipates the upcoming rally will extend past that threshold.
While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it's the 'top,' the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up,
GugaOnChain
The 20-month SMA demonstrates confluence with Bitcoin's 2026 opening price level at $87,490, strengthening its effectiveness as a resistance barrier. According to Cointelegraph's reporting, substantial walls of ask liquidity continue to exist in this price range throughout exchange order books.
Onchain data shows entrenching Bitcoin bull market
CryptoQuant continues to hold a generally positive outlook regarding Bitcoin's developing bull market even as cryptocurrency and risk assets navigate through challenging macroeconomic conditions.
During this week, contributor XWIN Research Japan highlighted information from three onchain metrics that they indicated provided grounds for "cautious optimism" regarding the return of bullish momentum through October's conclusion.
During late August, CEO Ki Young Ju formally declared that the bear market had concluded, or was "over," based on measurements from the bull-bear market cycle indicator. This tool utilizes composite information from multiple onchain profitability metrics, and currently displays bullish momentum intensifying with a reading of 0.186 on its scale compared to 0.042 in August.
