Prediction Market Shows 73% Probability for Hormuz Strait Normal Operations by May's End
Polymarket platform participants estimate a 73% likelihood that the Strait will resume standard maritime traffic levels before May 31, 2026.
On Friday, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz "returning to normal" operations before May concludes jumped to 73% on the Polymarket prediction platform, a surge triggered by reports that Iranian authorities have provisionally reopened the Strait of Hormuz under the terms of a ceasefire agreement.
The likelihood reached a peak of 82% on Friday, following Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi's announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz's operational status. The probability has subsequently retreated to 73%. His statement on X read:
"The passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Nevertheless, platform traders have assessed the probability of the Strait achieving normal activity levels by April's conclusion at merely 40%.
The Iranian conflict has created significant turbulence across global financial markets, affecting both cryptocurrency valuations and energy sector pricing, as market participants and economic experts respond to political shifts in the continuing confrontation.
Bitcoin rises on the ceasefire news, but the truce is "fragile"
Bitcoin's (BTC) value experienced a notable increase on Friday following news of the Strait's temporary reopening under ceasefire conditions, momentarily touching the $78,000 threshold before settling to approximately $77,358, which represents the current price at publication time.
Cryptocurrency market specialist Nic Puckrin informed Cointelegraph that the April ceasefire between the US and Iran is "fragile" and that fundamental issues continue to lack resolution.
The consequences stemming from the conflict will probably continue to influence financial markets throughout the majority of 2026, delaying any potential interest rate reductions until Q3 2026 at the soonest, assuming such rate cuts occur at all during this year, according to Puckrin's assessment.
"A ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also softer-than-expected economic data that calms stagflation fears" are all needed for BTC to reclaim the $90,000 level, he said.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump stated that the American naval blockade imposed on Iran would "remain in full force and effect" until the "transaction with Iran is 100% complete."