John Oliver Declares He Won't Cater to Prediction Market Bettors
The Last Week Tonight host criticized prediction market platforms and called out Coinbase's Brian Armstrong for influencing wagering outcomes during his third-quarter 2025 earnings presentation.
The host of HBO's Last Week Tonight, John Oliver, set his sights on prediction market services during the program's most recent in-depth segment.
During the HBO program's Sunday broadcast, Oliver examined various frivolous event contracts available on services like Polymarket and Kalshi, ranging from wagers on whether Trump administration officials would utter specific terms during public speeches, to the platforms' contentious partnerships with media outlets.
The television personality particularly highlighted Donald Trump Jr.'s connections with both services — serving as an adviser to Polymarket and Kalshi — and criticized how the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under Chair Michael Selig "doesn't even seem to be trying" to prevent event contracts related to assassination, terrorism and warfare.
Throughout a significant portion of the episode, Oliver explored how it is "incredibly easy for individuals to manipulate the outcomes," pointing to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reciting a series of cryptocurrency-related terms during his Q3 2025 earnings call, which resulted in numerous Kalshi and Polymarket participants winning their wagers.
"I'm going to make you a promise tonight. I will never do anything because someone online placed a bet on it. So you can be confident that if I ever say Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3, it won't be because I'm trying to move markets — it will be because I'm having a stroke."
John Oliver
Despite the fact that participant engagement and trading volume on prediction market platforms have grown exponentially over recent months — with projections suggesting they will hit $1 trillion by 2030 — the services' contentious betting options and their legal standing across US states have concerned certain industry observers. Gaming regulators in multiple states are pursuing legal action against firms like Kalshi for purported unlawful sports wagering, with Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal and other experts anticipating the litigation will ultimately reach the US Supreme Court.
Financial giants looking to expand into prediction markets?
Beyond previously disclosed collaborations with major media organizations such as Dow Jones, Fox News, CNBC and CNN, conventional financial institutions including Citadel Securities and Charles Schwab have recently indicated interest in exploring prediction market opportunities.
During an investors call on Thursday, Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster stated the firm would "take a hard look at" prediction markets. At a different event on the same day, Citadel Securities President Jim Esposito mentioned that the firm was "absolutely keeping an eye on developments" regarding a possible entry into the marketplace.