ETH Price Analysis Points to $1.8K Target Amid 13-Month Low in Network TVL
Technical analysis suggests Ethereum could face a 14% decline toward $1,800 as bearish chart patterns emerge alongside weakening total value locked across the network.
The price action of Ether (ETH) has developed into a "bear pennant" formation on its daily timeframe, representing a technical pattern typically linked to sustained downward price action. With deteriorating technical indicators and declining total value locked figures, is ETH poised to extend its correction down to the $1,800 level?
Key takeaways:
- A bear pennant pattern is taking shape on Ether's daily chart, indicating a possible decline to $1,800.
- Additional downside pressure on ETH may materialize if Ethereum's total value locked undergoes further contraction.
Bears targeting ETH price "dump" toward $1,800
Following a 13% decline from its recent multi-month peak above $2,400, Ether broke through a critical trend line that had provided price support since the beginning of February.
"ETH is going to dump hard soon?" Chain Mind said in a video posted on X, outlining potential future movements for ETH/USD following its breakdown beneath the rising trend line.
"This is the crucial moment for ETH," Chain Mind said, emphasizing that the price needed to recover the support level, or else a decline toward levels beneath $1,800 would become increasingly likely.
In the meantime, the price action of ETH has carved out a bear pennant chart formation on its daily timeframe, as illustrated in the chart below.
The bear pennant represents a bearish technical pattern that develops when prices consolidate between two converging trend lines after experiencing a significant downward move.
The pattern will complete when price action breaks beneath the pennant's lower boundary at $2,060, paving the way for a downward move equivalent to the height of the preceding uptrend. This scenario projects a downside target for ETH/USD at $1,800, representing a 14% decrease from current price levels.
Crypto analyst Alex Marzell said that if Ether's price dropped below $2,050, it would increase the chances of a move toward the next support zone at $1,800.
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether's downtrend is likely to continue toward $1,750 in the short term if key support levels do not hold.
Total value locked on Ethereum plummets 55%
The bearish technical picture for Ether coincides with multiple additional challenges, including recent departures from the Ethereum Foundation, deteriorating social media sentiment, and contracting total value locked (TVL) throughout its decentralized finance protocols.
The TVL on Ethereum has declined to $116 billion, marking levels not witnessed since April 2025. By contrast, the network's TVL reached an all-time peak of $258 billion on Aug. 14, 2025.
This means the TVL has decreased by more than half, signifying a 55% decline.
The negative trajectory in TVL growth appears even more severe within Ethereum's layer-2 (L2) ecosystem, with Ether.fi experiencing the steepest decline as its total value locked contracted by 32% during the past 30 days.
"There is a sustained TVL decline" across Ethereum's L2 sector, CryptoRank said in its Telegram note on Monday.
The most dramatic corrections have occurred in Arbitrum (-63%), zkSync (-64%), and Linea (-98%), "pointing to high liquidity sensitivity to incentive programs and short-term reward mechanics," the crypto analytics platform said, adding:
"This reinforces the broader picture of capital fragmentation in Ethereum's rollup ecosystem and undermines the 'unified liquidity pool' effect that early L2 development models envisioned."
The contraction in TVL reflects diminishing onchain activity and demand, creating additional downward pressure on ETH while elevating the probability of continued price deterioration in the immediate future.