BTC long positions surge as traders defy troubling macro signals: Will Bitcoin reach $82K?
Bitcoin traders are increasingly favoring long positions over shorts even as worrying US economic indicators surface. Could this signal an upcoming push to $82,000?
Key takeaways:
- Leading traders have increased their Bitcoin long-to-short ratios, reinforcing the support level at $76,000.
- Economic headwinds and continuous Bitcoin ETF outflows are limiting Bitcoin's near-term potential to break toward $82,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly approached the $78,000 mark on Thursday but couldn't maintain its upward trajectory following disappointing guidance from US retail giant Walmart and increasing indications of a more hawkish US monetary stance. Even amid deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals, institutional Bitcoin traders have expanded their bullish positions. Could a push toward $82,000 be on the horizon?
The long-to-short ratio among top traders climbed to its strongest level over the past 2 weeks, signaling increased conviction in the support zone around $76,000. On Binance, this ratio has stayed approximately 8% tilted toward longs (buy) for three consecutive days, whereas traders on OKX decreased their shorts (sell) throughout Wednesday and Thursday. However, when viewed in absolute terms, the long-to-short metric continues to show neutral positioning.
Deteriorating economic outlook and elevated crude prices fuel concerns of US rate increases
Some of this hesitation can be attributed to declining economic growth projections. Walmart (WMT US) experienced a 7% drop in its stock price following the release of disappointing 2027 outlook, citing ongoing elevated oil prices as a key concern. According to Walmart CFO John Furner, consumers with lower incomes are "navigating financial distress." Given the company's substantial $178 billion in quarterly sales, it serves as a key indicator for broader US retail performance.
The continuing conflict in Iran and the resulting partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have maintained crude Brent oil prices above $95 throughout the past month. This persistent upward pressure on inflation leaves the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with fewer policy options. Market participants now expect potential interest rate hikes, representing a dramatic shift from forecasts made just one month earlier.
Based on government bond futures markets, the probability of interest rate increases by September has surged to 37%, climbing from 0% just one month ago. Therefore, irrespective of the S&P 500 Index performance, market participants are forecasting accelerated expansion in the monetary base, given that elevated interest rates adversely impact the $39 trillion US government debt burden.
Bitcoin's price on Coinbase showed a 0.10% discount compared to Bitcoin prices on leading exchanges denominated in USDT. This negative Coinbase Bitcoin premium typically signals weak institutional buying pressure, which corresponds with the $2.07 billion in net outflows recorded from US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) beginning May 12.
Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates have remained at neutral territory since Monday, representing a reversal from the previous week's pattern. While the current 7% rate cannot be characterized as bullish, it represents a significant shift from May 14 when shorts (sellers) were paying 13% to maintain their positions open.
Considering the uncertain outlook facing global economies, the likelihood of a continuous Bitcoin rally to $82,000 in the immediate future seems limited. Nevertheless, the decrease in short positions among top traders coupled with a balanced perpetual futures funding rate suggests that bulls are steadily gaining confidence in the support level at $76,000.