BTC Whale Maintains Bearish Stance Despite $13M Unrealized Losses
Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin could retreat to $71,000, which would reduce a major whale's current $13 million unrealized loss on a massive short position.
A prominent Bitcoin (BTC) whale trader currently faces approximately $13 million in unrealized losses following BTC's roughly 40% recovery from lows reached in February. Despite these substantial losses, the whale remains committed to maintaining the bearish position.
Key takeaways:
- The whale identified as "pension-usdt.eth" has established a short position on 1,000 BTC valued at approximately $81 million utilizing 3x leverage.
- Complete liquidation of the BTC short would occur at $100,810, while Kalshi prediction market participants currently estimate a 50% likelihood of BTC touching $100,000 during 2026.
Over $80 million faces liquidation risk if BTC reaches $100,000
The whale trader operating under the identifier 'pension-usdt.eth' maintains a short position on 1,000 BTC, currently valued at approximately $81.06 million, employing 3x cross leverage, based on information compiled by HypurrScan.IO.
This position, carrying exposure exceeding $80.87 million, was initiated when BTC traded at a price of $67,990. By Tuesday, the digital currency had climbed to approximately $81,000–$82,000, resulting in unrealized losses approaching $13 million on the short position.
Additionally, the whale maintains a short position on 20,000 Ether (ETH) valued at approximately $46.1 million, which brings the combined bearish exposure beyond $127 million.
Funding revenue generated from the combined short BTC and ETH positions has exceeded $125,000, although this amount pales in comparison to the current unrealized loss.
The magnitude of this drawdown stands out particularly because pension-usdt.eth previously achieved 20 consecutive winning trades and maintained a win rate surpassing 85%, according to data tracker Lookonchain in a post published in April.
Despite the losses, the whale trader affirmed continuing to maintain the short position, stating "the trade makes sense."
These statements emerged as Bitcoin demonstrated indications of momentum exhaustion approaching a significant resistance convergence. This critical resistance zone encompasses the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA, blue line) alongside the upper trendline of a rising wedge formation, both positioned near $82,430.
Should the wedge pattern resolve successfully to the downside, Bitcoin's probability of declining toward the projected target near $71,500 would increase. In such a scenario, the whale trader's unrealized loss on the 1,000 BTC short position would decrease to approximately $3.5 million.
Market analyst Crypto Kid emphasized that historical rejection from the 200-day SMA has typically preceded extended bear market periods.
The last two times this retest occurred at the same point in Bitcoin's four-year cycle, we dropped an average of 68%.
An equivalent percentage decline from present price levels would push the BTC price below $30,000, transforming pension-usdt.eth's trade into approximately $38 million in realized profit.
Market observers argue Bitcoin's current structure diverges from previous bear cycles
Certain market analysts contend that Bitcoin's present market structure bears little resemblance to historical bear-market patterns.
Technical analyst CRG observed that throughout the 2022 bear market cycle, Bitcoin failed to achieve even a single daily close positioned above the Ichimoku cloud. This technical zone typically functions as dynamic resistance during downtrends while providing support during uptrends.
BTC's subsequent breakthrough above the cloud signaled the beginning of a "new bull market."
By May, BTC had already established trading well above the daily cloud formation. According to CRG, this positioning diminishes the validity of bearish comparisons to the previous cycle.
Pierre Rochard, serving as CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, expressed comparable sentiments, contending that the present bear market has "materially decoupled from past cycles."
In a post published Tuesday, Rochard attributed Bitcoin's relative market strength to a mixture of consistent ETF capital inflows and ongoing accumulation by Bitcoin treasury companies including Strategy.
According to Kalshi, a prediction market platform, market participants currently assign a 50% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 during 2026.
The entire $81 million Bitcoin position held by Pension-usdt.eth would face complete liquidation should the BTC price climb to $100,810.