BTC Price Dips Toward $61K as Oil Surges Past $75 Amid Iran-US Ceasefire Breakdown

BTC Price Dips Toward $61K as Oil Surges Past $75 Amid Iran-US Ceasefire Breakdown

Bitcoin faced downward pressure approaching the critical $61,000 level while crude oil prices climbed following the breakdown of ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under the $62,000 threshold following Wednesday's opening of Wall Street trading as US president Donald Trump raised concerns about the potential closure of a critical global oil shipping lane.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin falls to $61,500 after Trump declares that the ceasefire agreement with Iran is "over."
  • Reports indicate both nations are threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices higher.
  • Bitcoin market participants expect further downside, though technical analysis suggests Trump may improve sentiment subsequently.

Bitcoin surrenders recent gains following Trump's declaration that Iran ceasefire is "over"

Information from TradingView revealed BTC price experiencing approximately 2.5% in daily losses as markets responded to the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.

BTC/USD one-hour chart
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

"To me, I think it's over," Trump stated regarding the ceasefire when speaking at a press conference held at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

Further reports suggested that both the United States and Iran were weighing options to reinstate a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transportation corridor.

US WTI crude oil surpassed the $75 per barrel threshold during the trading session, climbing to its most elevated levels since June 22.

US WTI crude oil chart
CFDs on US WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These recent developments had an immediate effect on market projections regarding monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

Recent data sourced from CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated rising probability of an interest-rate increase occurring at the Fed's September policy meeting, while July's gathering remains expected to maintain rates at their present levels.

Fed target rate probabilities
Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Participants on prediction platform Kalshi, on the other hand, estimated the likelihood of a rate hike occurring in 2026 at 55%.

Market analyst identifies $61,000 as "crucial" BTC price support

Providing commentary, cryptocurrency trader and analyst Michaël Van de Poppe forecasted a potential retest of the $61,000 level for Bitcoin.

"This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we're in talks again. And the markets reverse," he wrote in a post on X.

Previously, Van de Poppe indicated that there was "no problem" apparent in BTC price behavior.

"Price remains hovering above $60,000, despite the fact that the Middle East has reactivated the War again. Other than that, as long as it remains a relatively shallow correction, I don't think we'll start to see lower levels in the markets," he wrote.

"The crucial level for me is the $61,000 area."

BTC/USDT one-day chart
BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe/X

Within trading circles, expectations were mounting regarding a potential move to fresh local lows.

"Tensions with Iran flaring up again just as $BTC tried to reclaim the previous range lows. Starting to look like we're getting those cheaper accumulation opportunities we were hoping for," trader Jelle told X followers.

BTC/USD one-day chart
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jelle/X
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