Bitcoin unlikely to reach new peaks in 2026, say Polymarket bettors and trader Peter Brandt
Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates Bitcoin won't hit new all-time highs until the second quarter of 2027, while Polymarket participants place only a 15% probability on Bitcoin reaching $120,000 during 2026.
Bitcoin may not return to its record high of $126,100, which was achieved in October of last year, for more than a year, based on the forecast of seasoned trader Peter Brandt.
"I do not see a new price high in 2026," Brandt told Cointelegraph. "Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027," he said, though he also acknowledged that "this is all guesswork."
Participants on Polymarket, the crypto prediction platform, share a similar pessimistic outlook, assigning merely a 15% probability that Bitcoin will reach $120,000 again in 2026.
Market analysts remain split on Bitcoin's anticipated performance throughout 2026. The theory of the four-year cycle points to Bitcoin being poised for a less robust year, although some observers contend that growing institutional demand has disrupted the historical pattern, potentially resulting in a positive year for Bitcoin.
Brandt said his Bitcoin thesis hasn't changed
At the time of publication, however, Bitcoin is changing hands at $66,329, reflecting a decline of 3.46% over the previous seven days, based on CoinMarketCap data. It is down about 47% from the $126,100 all-time high.
Bitcoin touched a yearly low of $60,000 on Feb. 6, but Brandt said that may not be the lowest level for 2026, forecasting that Bitcoin could retest or even move "slightly lower" than the price level in September or October this year.
"That would then be the bear cycle low, and a new bull cycle would begin," Brandt said.
Despite a cautious outlook for the year, Brandt said his broader thesis on Bitcoin hasn't changed. "The BTC story is a store of wealth. Whether the utility gets built on top of BTC could impact price," he said, adding that he is neutral or bearish on all other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said in an X post on March 17 that, from a liquidity perspective, Bitcoin is about one-third of the way "through the bear market."
Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm also said last week that Bitcoin is in the bear portion of the four-year market cycle.
"We're in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG's, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy."
It comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-week inflow streak, posting $296.18 million in net outflows for the week ending Friday.
Meanwhile, sentiment indicators signal that investors are cautious about the crypto market amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has been hovering in "extreme fear" since March 20, posting a score of 8 on Monday.
Not everyone is bearish on the year ahead.
In January, Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee said he still expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high this year after warning investors to brace for a "painful decline" across the crypto and stock markets.