XRP faces potential fall under $1 threshold, yet blockchain metrics reveal positive indicators
While XRP's probability of closing beneath the $1 mark increases daily, major holder accumulation and declining exchange reserves suggest active purchasing by market participants.
Currently trading marginally above the $1 threshold, XRP has reached its most vulnerable price point this year, yet blockchain analytics tell a more optimistic story.
Exchange reserves of XRP keep declining, withdrawal activity on Binance has surpassed deposit volumes for a continuous seven-day period, major holder flows maintain positive territory, and spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have garnered $243 million in capital inflows beginning in April.
These enhanced blockchain metrics indicate robust network fundamentals, despite XRP's ongoing quest to establish a definitive price floor.
Exchange-held XRP reserves experience continued contraction
Cryptocurrency analyst Amr Taha observed that XRP holdings on Binance have dropped to their lowest point since March following the withdrawal of approximately 100 million XRP tokens throughout the previous month. On June 25, Binance's XRP balance registered around 2.68 billion tokens, representing a decrease from the 2.78 billion XRP recorded on May 12, constituting the most substantial outflow among prominent trading venues.
Additional exchanges witnessed more modest reductions. Upbit's XRP reserve decreased to 2.48 billion tokens on June 25 from 2.51 billion XRP on May 31, whereas Bybit's inventory dropped to 82 million XRP from the previous 92 million XRP on June 2. While Binance demonstrated the largest absolute outflows, Bybit experienced the most dramatic percentage reduction.
Taha further emphasized a notable transformation in Binance's transaction patterns. Withdrawal transactions for XRP have consistently outpaced deposit activities for seven consecutive days beginning June 17. The seven-day withdrawal proportion increased to 53.8% on June 23, marking its highest measurement since June 2024, while deposits diminished to 46.1%, representing the weakest level recorded since 2024.
This particular metric monitors transaction frequency rather than actual XRP volume. The data demonstrates that platform users are transferring tokens off Binance at a higher rate than depositing them onto the exchange, representing the most prolonged withdrawal-dominant period in approximately one year.
Major XRP stakeholders have reinforced this pattern. The 90-day moving average of XRP whale flow has remained in positive territory throughout the entire quarter at 5.143 million XRP daily, demonstrating persistent net accumulation by substantial wallet holders rather than distribution activity.
Institutional interest has provided additional backing. Spot XRP ETFs captured $2 million in net capital inflows on June 24, bringing June's aggregate netflows to $31 million. From April onward, total cumulative inflows have climbed to $243 million.
XRP valuation nears critical support territory
From a technical analysis perspective, the longer-term market structure continues to display bearish characteristics for the digital asset. XRP reached $1.01 on Thursday, marking its lowest valuation of 2026, positioning the token dangerously close to its first descent below $1 since November 2024. This downturn has resulted in a 43% year-to-date decline for XRP.
The subsequent crucial zone for XRP is located within the fair value gap spanning $1 down to $0.63, representing an unfilled pricing vacuum generated during the aggressive upward movement in late 2024 that may draw purchasing activity should the downward trajectory continue throughout the upcoming weeks.
Versan Aljarrah, founder of Black Swan Capitalist, maintains focus on the extended-term chart analysis. The market analyst stated that XRP has dedicated multiple years constructing an extensive accumulation range characterized by higher lows across both weekly and monthly time intervals.
Aljarrah posited that prolonged consolidation periods frequently generate more powerful breakout movements once price action ultimately escapes the established range, with the analyst projecting a $10 price target, representing a 900% gain from current valuation levels.