US Midterm Elections Could Spark Bitcoin and Stock Rally, Binance Research Indicates
According to Binance Research, the upcoming US midterm elections may trigger a recovery in Bitcoin and equity markets, although geopolitical concerns and oil price volatility present short-term headwinds.
Historical market data analyzed by Binance Research suggests that the upcoming US midterm elections could serve as the next trigger for a recovery in cryptocurrency and equity markets.
In a report released on Wednesday, Binance Research highlighted that US midterm election cycles have traditionally preceded significant upswings in both stock and Bitcoin (BTC) markets, suggesting a possible recovery opportunity for risk-oriented assets following the 2026 electoral event.
Historical data indicates that the 12-month period after US midterm elections has generated an average gain of 19% for the S&P500 and a substantial 54% increase for Bitcoin across the three post-midterm years recorded.
The research division of Binance suggested that the year immediately after US midterm elections could represent the "strongest window in the cycle," pointing out that markets have consistently rallied once electoral results eliminate a significant element of political uncertainty.
"Once election outcomes are determined and uncertainty is resolved, markets have historically staged powerful rallies."
While Bitcoin has recorded negative performance during prior midterm election years, with a 56% decline in 2014, a 73% drop in 2018 and a 64% pullback in 2022, historical trends indicate recoveries occurred in subsequent years.
The analysis arrives almost eight months ahead of the Nov. 3 US midterm elections, an event that will shape the composition of the 120th Congress.
Binance Research indicated that immediate market movements are more likely to be influenced by ongoing tensions involving the US, Israel and Iran, cautioning that additional escalation might drive oil prices upward and maintain downward pressure on risk-sensitive assets.
Oil spike adds to market stress
Crude oil prices momentarily climbed to $95 per barrel on Thursday as the ongoing conflict reached its 13th day, based on information from Trading Economics.
The surge in prices followed news of Iran intensifying its offensive against energy facilities, with two fuel tankers being damaged by explosive-equipped Iranian vessels, as Reuters reported earlier on Thursday.
A representative from Iran's military command informed the news organization that global markets should brace for oil prices reaching $200 per barrel as a consequence of instability attributed to the US.
This price increase occurred just one day after the International Energy Agency announced that member nations would execute a 400 million-barrel emergency stock release, representing the largest coordinated drawdown in recorded history.
Global markets in "wait-and-see" phase amid geopolitical escalations
The continuing situation in the Middle East continues to be the primary factor influencing global risk appetite, as uncertainties related to energy availability and military tensions have placed markets in a "wait-and-see phase where policy and geopolitical risks intersect," according to analysts from crypto derivatives platform Bitunix who spoke with Cointelegraph:
"Currently, BTC is fluctuating repeatedly below the $70,000 level, indicating that market activity remains dominated by liquidity sweeps both above and below."
The current market framework indicates that Bitcoin will likely stay confined within this trading range until "macro events provide clearer directional signals," according to the analysts.