Nine Connected Polymarket Accounts Made $2.4M Betting on Military Events with 98% Success Rate: Bubblemaps Report
A Bubblemaps analysis revealed nine linked wallets that amassed $2.4 million in profits through an almost flawless winning streak on Polymarket bets related to significant United States military actions.
According to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, a network of connected Polymarket accounts has been discovered that amassed profits totaling $2.4 million while maintaining an extraordinary 98% success rate on wagers linked to United States military activities.
A group of nine cryptocurrency wallets executed their most significant wagers immediately prior to substantial military events, such as the Feb. 28 strike on Iran, the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, as detailed by Bubblemaps in an X platform post published on Monday.
All of the wallets received their initial funding from centralized cryptocurrency exchanges within a compressed time period and executed several small unsuccessful wagers on Feb. 20, actions that appear designed to "avoid attention," Bubblemaps stated. A quartet of these wallets individually generated approximately $400,000 in earnings from their predictions that the United States would launch an attack on Iran on Feb. 28.
This research underscores the mounting worries about insider trading activities connected to decentralized forecasting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The focus was on limiting insider trading practices within prediction markets.
Although the blockchain analytics firm lacks concrete evidence confirming the wallets were controlled by individuals with insider knowledge, the blockchain evidence is "symptomatic of someone with an unfair informational advantage," stated Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of Bubblemaps, in conversation with Cointelegraph. His statement continued:
"We cannot say with certainty that this was an attempt to hide, but it is suspicious that funds were routed through CEXs and third-party services before funding new Polymarket accounts, effectively covering their tracks."
US lawmakers seek stricter regulations on war-related prediction market contracts
Members of the United States Congress have put forward legislative proposals aimed at combating the increasing insider trading risks associated with military-themed contracts available on prediction market platforms.
Senator Adam Schiff, a member of the US Democratic Party, presented the DEATH BETS Act on March 10, which aims to prohibit federally overseen prediction markets from offering contracts related to warfare, acts of terrorism, political assassinations, and deaths of specific individuals.
The proposed legislation emerged not long after half a dozen Polymarket participants earned a combined $1 million through wagers placed on the United States military strike against Iran.
In a distinct but related action occurring in late March, California's Governor Gavin Newsom enacted an executive order designed to prevent government employees from engaging in insider trading activities on prediction markets connected to political developments or economic matters over which they hold influence.
Contracts centered on political topics presently represent the third-most popular category on Polymarket, comprising 12% of total notional trading volume, while on Kalshi they rank as the fifth-largest category, representing 0.7% of the platform's weekly trading volume, based on analytics from Dune data.