Markus Thielen Declares Bitcoin's Path to $1M by 2030 'Mathematically Impossible'
According to Markus Thielen, the astronomical sums of capital required to propel Bitcoin to $1 million per coin won't materialize by 2030... and may never come to fruition.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that the frequently repeated forecast of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 is fundamentally flawed when examined through a mathematical lens.
"It's mathematically impossible," Thielen states in conversation with Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, explaining that the capital inflows Bitcoin has received throughout its 15-year history pale in comparison to what would be required over the next four years to achieve a $1 million price point. "We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It's 15x, I think, from here," Thielen says.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at approximately $1.28 trillion at the time of publication, with the price per coin trading at $63,868.
According to Thielen's calculations, Bitcoin would require an additional $15 trillion in capital inflows to achieve a price of $1 million per coin. This figure represents approximately 25% of the entire US stock market's total valuation flowing into Bitcoin within the next four-year period.
"It would require trillions," says Thielen
"It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that's why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions," Thielen says.
According to Thielen, as Bitcoin's price climbs higher, retail investor sentiment actually deteriorates, partially due to the psychological tendency among investors to prefer owning complete units of an asset.
"I think a lot of people kind of wondered, maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin, or should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?" Thielen says. "People don't want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don't want to buy a fraction of a painting."
"Satoshis doesn't really sound as interesting as Bitcoin," Thielen says.
Thielen cautions Bitcoin holders against simply assuming Bitcoin will recover in the same manner it has during previous market cycles, noting that the $126,000 all-time high may take longer to resurface than many investors anticipate.
"Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. So I wouldn't argue that next year we're gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let's say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement," Thielen says.
$1 million Bitcoin has been touted by well-known industry executives
Several prominent figures within the cryptocurrency industry have made the prediction that Bitcoin will achieve $1 million by 2030, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. According to Thielen, such ambitious price targets serve as an easy mechanism for executives to capture media headlines.
"Round numbers and the higher the number, the more it's being quoted by the press," Thielen says, contending that these extravagant price predictions frequently cause more damage than benefit.
"These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they sort of think, OK, if this is only halfway right, then I'm gonna make a lot of money," Thielen says.
"I think nearly everybody was still very bullish and projected higher prices [but] we came into the year already quite conservative, and you know, I think our conservative approach has been the right strategy," Thielen says.
When Cointelegraph questioned Thielen about which year Bitcoin investors might realistically expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million, he responded cautiously. "I don't want to say never, but I do think, you know, a million is really a high number," Thielen says.
"It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything."