IMF Research Finds Dollar-Pegged Stablecoins Offer FX Benefits While Raising Currency Flight Concerns
Research from the IMF indicates that stablecoins pegged to the dollar may enhance foreign currency availability, though they could simultaneously facilitate coordinated mass departures from domestic currencies when exchange rate pressures intensify.
Stablecoins tied to the dollar may enhance foreign exchange availability in nations operating fixed or tightly controlled exchange rate systems, though they might simultaneously intensify currency flight when domestic monetary units face acute devaluation pressure, a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) publication suggests.
These conclusions emerge from research conducted by economist Brandon Joel Tan in a working paper. The study, bearing the title "Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," created models examining stablecoin impacts on unofficial foreign-exchange (FX) trading when access to official dollars faces restrictions.
The research underscores that stablecoins offer citizens a pathway to obtain dollars in situations where traditional banking institutions or government-sanctioned exchange mechanisms fail to satisfy market demand. Nevertheless, amid currency crisis conditions, the publicly observable stablecoin pricing mechanism may trigger simultaneous mass abandonment of national currencies, implying authorities might require temporary restrictions on exceptionally large or panic-motivated transaction volumes.
According to Tan's analysis, stablecoins facilitate easier access to "dollar-like claims" while establishing a transparent, continuously updated indicator of dollar demand levels. In scenarios where official government exchange rates diverge significantly from actual market valuations, such pricing signals can indicate mounting dollar shortages and encourage collective shifts away from domestic currency holdings.
Stablecoins emerge as parallel FX benchmarks
The research paper's conclusions mirror existing real-world stablecoin adoption patterns in nations experiencing restricted official dollar availability. On June 9, 2025, Bolivian airport retailers were seen pricing goods using USDT as a reference, while still accepting US dollars or bolivianos.
In 2024, Cointelegraph reported that Argentines were using underground "crypto caves" to exchange pesos for dollar-stablecoins at rates closer to the unofficial market. The practice gave residents another way to preserve savings as the peso lost value and currency controls restricted access to the dollar.
While these uses highlighted the benefits of stablecoins, regulators have also recently warned about broader risks. On March 24, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) said dollar stablecoins could expose emerging economies to currency substitution, weaker monetary policy and the circumvention of capital-flow measures.
The FSB urged lawmakers to assess how the stablecoin sector develops to understand and respond to liquidity and operational risks as stablecoins interlink with the broader financial system.