BTC's Spent Output Profit Ratio Records 2026's Most Extended Profitable Period While Expert Questions Bear Market Narrative
An onchain profitability indicator for Bitcoin maintains its most prolonged positive run of 2026 despite cautions from industry analyst David Puell.
Bitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating deviation from characteristic bear-market patterns as a traditional onchain indicator achieves its most sustained positive performance of 2026.
Key points:
- The spent output profit ratio for Bitcoin has maintained levels above the neutral threshold of 1 for three consecutive weeks, representing its most extended run in 2026.
- Current analysis indicates that unspent transaction output profitability signals a transition toward bull-market dynamics.
- David Puell maintains that SOPR requires sustained positive momentum, anticipating additional BTC price declines ahead.
SOPR data repeats early bull-market activity
Information from cryptocurrency analytics service CryptoQuant reveals that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has maintained its position above the neutral level of 1 starting from Aug. 19. SOPR evaluates the degree to which coins transferred onchain are moved at elevated or reduced prices relative to their prior transaction.
This indicator, which typically fluctuates within a narrow band surrounding 1, presently registers 1.002. Readings exceeding 1 signal that coins are predominantly being transferred at a profit — an indicator of prevailing bullish market dynamics. This positive signal has now persisted for three weeks, establishing the most prolonged period of bullish SOPR witnessed in 2026 to date.
SOPR analysis can be segmented by wallet category to distinguish profitability patterns between more recent and established investors. Discussing SOPR measurements for short-term holders (STHs), addresses maintaining a UTXO without liquidation for a maximum of six months, onchain analytics platform Checkonchain contributed to optimism that Bitcoin is orchestrating a sustained bullish turnaround.
In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.
Puell retains Bitcoin price "downside risk" despite SOPR recovery
Notwithstanding BTC/USD maintaining a regional trading zone near $80,000 concurrent with the SOPR profitability continuation, the trading pair may yet reach fresh macro bottoms during this cycle, according to warnings from one of the sector's most prominent analysts.
During a conversation with CryptoQuant on Sept. 4, ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell, originator of the Puell multiple BTC price indicator, indicated that additional confirmation was required before concluding that the forthcoming bear-market bottom has already been established.
When questioned regarding how Bitcoin's 25% August gains might develop heading into Q4, Puell proposed that continued upward movement represented the less probable scenario.
In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk.
Puell identified SOPR indicators as a crucial condition for modifying his longer-term outlook, explaining that the metric must sustain levels above 1 for a prolonged timeframe, with market participants "realizing profits consistently without price going back to a new low."
Bitcoin must additionally begin establishing sequences of higher highs and higher lows — a configuration that Cointelegraph reported remains lacking on weekly timeframes.
During late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju characterized the bear market as already "over" based on the most recent data from its exclusive Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator.