BTC Price Target of $92K Emerges as Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Comes Into Focus
On-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin's rally could continue, though BTC faces significant hurdle at the $84,000 level that may slow momentum.
During early Asian market hours on Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) purchasing activity picked up steam, with buyers driving the cryptocurrency to a fresh multi-month peak of $82,240.
On-chain metrics, particularly the cost basis for short-term holders (STH), point to potential for additional upside momentum in BTC price action, with analysts eyeing $92,000 as the subsequent major milestone.
Key takeaways:
- Profitability has returned for Bitcoin holders, boosting prospects for a move toward $92,000.
- Breaking through resistance at the $84,000 level is essential for BTC bulls to sustain upward momentum.
Next target for Bitcoin price set at $92,000
TradingView data reveals that BTC/USD has climbed 37% to currently trade north of $82,000, marking a substantial recovery from its multi-month bottom of $60,000 recorded on Feb. 6.
The current rally has pushed Bitcoin above the average cost basis for short-term holders, which stands at $79,000 based on Glassnode's data.
The STH cost basis represents the mean acquisition price for those investors who have maintained Bitcoin positions for fewer than 155 days.
Historical patterns show that successfully reclaiming this threshold has typically aligned with prolonged recovery periods, as market participants who return to profitability tend to exhibit reduced selling pressure and increased willingness to expand their positions. This dynamic can also draw in new market participants and initiate short squeeze events as bearish positions get liquidated.
The accompanying chart demonstrates that following the price recovery above its realized price in April 2025, Bitcoin surged 30% toward the upper boundary of this indicator at $112,000 within a four-week timeframe.
Comparable patterns emerged in October 2024, October 2023 and January 2023, where BTC price similarly rallied toward this identical on-chain threshold, as illustrated in the chart provided.
Should BTC successfully breach above this level, there exists a strong probability of reaching $92,423 in the near term, representing approximately 13% gains from present price levels.
Analyst Mitchell Askew noted in a Wednesday X post that "Bitcoin has crossed the coveted 'short-term holder breakout,'" and continued:
"This typically signals the end of bear markets and consolidation periods."
According to Bitcoin analyst Plan C, if price action "can find sustained support above this level," it would validate that the 50% decline from the $126,000 all-time high represented merely a "mid-cycle correction."
At the same time, Bitcoin's STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has moved into positive territory, demonstrating early indications of changing market dynamics.
Analyst BitBull observed in a Wednesday X post that the indicator is "back above 1, which usually means recent buyers are back in profit and selling pressure is easing," further noting:
"This is where markets often move from accumulation into early bullish phases."
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, multiple technical signals indicate that Bitcoin has established its bottom, with market analysts projecting targets reaching as high as $250,000 over the next twelve months.
Flipping $84,000 to support crucial for Bitcoin's price trajectory
The bullish weekly candle close above both the 20-week exponential moving average and true market mean at $78,300 has strengthened trader conviction that Bitcoin can advance further from current price levels.
Market analysts indicate that whether Bitcoin's rally continues depends largely on successfully breaking through the $82,000-$84,000 supply concentration area.
Bitcoin faces a retest of the lower $80,000s region, which "corresponds with the November lows and the Daily 200MA/EMA coming in a bit higher," according to trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades in his most recent Bitcoin assessment on X.
It's worth noting that the 200-day EMA and the 200-day simple moving average are positioned at $82,600 and $83,402, respectively.
This represents a "big level" for Bitcoin bulls, the analyst explained, further stating:
"Acceptance higher can lead to a further bounce back into the $90Ks, but a rejection will likely keep this rangebound with $80K as the ceiling for a while."
MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe presented a chart identifying $84,000-$86,000 as the "next resistance zone," suggesting that if breached, Bitcoin could potentially "continue to the 50-Week MA around $90K."
Concurrently, analysis of Bitcoin's whale order book revealed "big ask orders concentrated" within the $82,000-$84,000 range, establishing it as a critical threshold that bulls must overcome.
As Cointelegraph previously reported, the BTC/USD trading pair could potentially climb as high as $92,000 provided that resistance at $84,000 is successfully breached.