Brazil Bans 27 Prediction Market Platforms Including Polymarket and Kalshi
Authorities in Brazil have prohibited 27 prediction market platforms, among them Polymarket and Kalshi, following the implementation of new regulations that restrict "gambling-like" contracts while expressing concerns about household indebtedness and the stability of financial systems.
Regulators in Brazil have taken action to block 27 platforms offering prediction markets, with prominent services Polymarket and Kalshi among those affected.
The announcement came on Friday, stemming from a directive issued by the Ministry of Finance and carried out by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), as reported by Agência Brasil, a state-owned news service. Officials have stated that these platforms operate beyond the boundaries of Brazil's existing legal structure and are therefore functioning illegally.
We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022.
Dario Durigan, Finance Ministry executive secretary
This enforcement action comes on the heels of Resolution 5.298, issued Friday by Brazil's National Monetary Council (CMN), which becomes operational in early May and severely restricts the types of offerings prediction market platforms can provide. According to the new regulatory framework, contracts related to sports events, political outcomes, entertainment happenings, or social developments are prohibited, with authorities viewing them as more akin to gambling activities than legitimate financial investment vehicles.
Permitted contracts will be limited to those connected to economic indicators, including inflation rates, interest rate movements, currency exchange rates, or commodity pricing, which will be subject to financial market regulatory supervision.
Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk
According to Durigan, prediction market platforms represent a potential threat to household debt levels and could subject users to financial damage.
At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness.
Dario Durigan
The list of blocked platforms encompasses both international operators and Brazil-specific services, featuring well-known names such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Robinhood (through its forecasting functionality) and Fanatics Markets.
Additional platforms impacted by the ban include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, together with multiple platforms focused on the Brazilian market, including Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.
More countries ban prediction markets
An increasing number of jurisdictions around the world have taken steps to prohibit prediction markets, frequently incorporating them into existing gambling or financial regulatory frameworks. Multiple European countries, such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have either blocked platforms or imposed penalties on those operating without proper authorization.
Within the United States, the regulatory landscape remains more divided, with continued conflict between federal regulatory authorities and state-level governments regarding the oversight of prediction market platforms.