Bitcoin's Four-Year Pattern Remains Valid, Q4 Rally Expected, Says Scaramucci
Anthony Scaramucci, a prominent investor, maintains that Bitcoin's current bearish phase aligns with historical cyclical trends and represents a less severe downturn compared to past market corrections.
Anthony Scaramucci, who serves as managing partner at SkyBridge investment firm, attributes the present Bitcoin (BTC) bearish trend to the cryptocurrency's four-year cyclical pattern, combined with long-term holders liquidating their positions at the $100,000 psychological price threshold.
While institutional participation and capital flowing into BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have dampened market swings and "muted" Bitcoin's traditional four-year market rhythm, Scaramucci notes these evolved market conditions haven't completely eliminated BTC's established cyclical behavior. According to his statement:
"We're in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG's, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy."
According to his analysis, BTC is poised to experience turbulent and sideways trading patterns throughout the majority of the year, with a shift expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, marking the beginning of a fresh bull market cycle and upward price momentum, he explained.
According to Scaramucci, widespread expectations among market participants, including his own projections, anticipated Bitcoin would reach $150,000 during 2025, fueled by US President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency-friendly policies and increasingly favorable positions from US regulatory bodies toward digital assets.
But the market crash that occurred in October, pulling BTC down from its peak of approximately $126,000 to a bottom near $60,000, completely demolished this widely accepted market consensus.
According to Scaramucci, markets frequently move contrary to dominant investor expectations, pointing to Bitcoin's performance during the initial months of 2023, which followed the November 2022 FTX exchange implosion, as a prime illustration of this phenomenon.
"It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again," he said, adding that the current BTC bear market is a "garden variety" correction in line with previous downturns.
Indeed, cryptocurrency industry leaders, market analysts, and trading participants remain divided on whether Bitcoin's four-year cyclical theory maintains its relevance following BTC's negative performance to close out 2025, or whether evolving market dynamics have fundamentally transformed the mechanisms driving BTC price movements.
Could Iran war and geopolitical turmoil bring BTC more pain?
Bitcoin's price descended beneath the $69,000 threshold on Saturday as the Iranian conflict moved into its third week, sending shockwaves through risk-sensitive assets throughout global markets.
Equity market participants witnessed the S&P 500 index continue its downward trajectory on Friday, declining approximately 1.3%. One day prior, the benchmark indicator settled beneath its 200-day moving average, a crucial technical metric monitored closely for evaluating the broader direction of stock markets, marking the first occurrence in 10 months.
Certain market analysts are now projecting a possible 50% decline in BTC's valuation during 2026 should it maintain its positive correlation with the S&P 500 index.