Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin at $1M by 2030, Yet Chooses to Invest in Ethereum
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes outlines the factors that could propel Bitcoin to a $1 million valuation by 2030, while explaining why ETH currently offers superior risk-adjusted returns in the cryptocurrency market.
According to Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, Bitcoin possesses all the necessary components to reach a price point in the seven figures within the coming four years.
However, his current investment focus is on ETH, as he anticipates it could potentially deliver a "3x to 5x pretty quickly."
During the most recent Trade Secrets episode, Hayes identifies the bursting of the AI bubble, "massive" money printing operations, and the possibility of US yield curve control as key factors that could drive Bitcoin's price to $1 million by 2030
"We have the ingredients. The time is now. So I think the $58,000 was probably the bottom in Bitcoin, and now it's going to grind higher in this hate fuck rally," the 41-year-old billionaire says.
This forecast from Hayes arrives mere weeks after Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, stated on Trade Secrets that achieving such a price point by 2030 was "mathematically impossible." Thielen's position was based on the observation that the volume of capital inflows Bitcoin experienced throughout the previous 15 years to achieve its current valuation indicates minimal likelihood of securing the trillions in additional inflows needed over the next four years to hit $1 million.
Hyperliquid no longer captures Arthur Hayes' attention
Despite maintaining his bullish stance on Bitcoin, Hayes expresses diminished enthusiasm regarding Hyperliquid's potential for future gains compared to his earlier position.
"I don't think there's that type of asymmetry in the price right now. Everybody knows that Hyperliquid is here," he says. "It's not an it's not this like unknown thing that's outperforming expectations, right? [...] There are massive expectations now on Hyperliquid."
"That doesn't necessarily mean it's not going to go up in price, but I think there's better risk-reward at least for the capital at Maelstrom to deploy into the shitcoin space than Hype," he says.
These remarks follow recent statements from US President Donald Trump indicating that efforts are underway to bring Hyperliquid into the United States. Nevertheless, Hayes, who received a presidential pardon from Trump in 2024, currently believes the president wields minimal influence over cryptocurrency asset valuations.
"It's irrelevant. What Trump says or does is irrelevant. Look at what Bessant does. Read the Treasury, read the Fed, read the monetary authorities. Like Trump is just a very entertaining politician, but he has no effect on the price of Bitcoin," Hayes says.
Additionally, Hayes expressed skepticism about Trump's willingness to expend the political capital necessary to advance crypto-related legislation such as the CLARITY Act, especially when other policy matters hold greater significance for typical voters. According to Hayes, the "median under-sighted voter" does not care about the legislation.
BitMEX closure leaves Hayes 'feeling excellent'
After completing his studies at the University of Pennsylvania in 2008, Hayes launched his professional career working as an equity derivatives trader for Deutsche Bank and Citibank in Hong Kong.
In 2014, Hayes joined forces with Ben Dolo and Samuel Reed to establish BitMEX, the groundbreaking crypto derivatives trading platform. The platform recently made public its decision to cease operations on Sept. 23 and has advised all users to liquidate their positions and transfer their funds prior to this cutoff date.
According to Hayes, it "feels excellent" that the exchange is shutting down on its own terms.
"We shut it down because we wanted to shut it down, not because we got hacked," he says, adding that it is the "best way" to go.
"We landed the plane on our own terms," he adds.
In Hayes' view, the competitive landscape has intensified to such a degree that operating a crypto exchange today is "really a mug's game" unless an organization possesses the operational scale comparable to industry giants like Binance or OKX.
"There's no point in even playing because it's just so expensive to secure it, so expensive to run the tech in the data centers, like it doesn't make any sense as a business," Hayes says.
Ethereum emerges as Hayes's top investment choice
According to Hayes, Ethereum represents his "number one pick" in the current market environment. "I think that is a better risk-reward for a spare unit of fiat that's gonna be deployed into crypto than Hyperliquid," he says.
"That doesn't necessarily mean that Hyperliquid won't rise in price. I just don't think it's poised for a 5x, and like where I think Ethereum could do, you know, 3x to 5x pretty quickly," he says.
"Everybody hates it. It's the one megacap crypto that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high."
Hayes emphasizes that Ethereum serves as the foundational layer for decentralized finance and, despite being "hated" for numerous reasons, is significantly overdue for a substantial price increase. "I think now it's time to perform because it's been so beaten down and so forgotten. And we saw it rip 20% when Bitcoin ripped," he says.