Analysis reveals final missing ingredient needed to ignite Bitcoin price rally
BTC is checking boxes for the essential prerequisites of a price recovery, though the return of Coinbase and Kimchi Premiums remains crucial.
According to fresh analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) has satisfied two out of three critical requirements necessary to ignite the next significant BTC price "rally."
Key points:
- The latest data shows that Bitcoin whales operating on Hyperliquid and Bitfinex are already indicating the onset of a BTC price uptrend.
- Bitcoin markets are now awaiting renewed demand as evidenced by the return of positive Coinbase and Kimchi Premium figures.
- Additional prerequisites typically associated with a bear market bottom are currently in the process of taking shape.
BTC price recovery depends on renewed demand from US and Korean markets
Major Bitcoin whale traders are establishing the groundwork for potential BTC price recovery, despite the fact that BTC/USD is currently testing four-month lows.
Through an X post published on Friday, trader CW verified that Bitcoin whales active on both Hyperliquid and Bitfinex are providing signals that point toward a market rebound.
According to CW's observations, Hyperliquid whales have taken on a "bullish stance" regarding the market, whereas on Bitfinex, long positions have begun to decline. This latter development represents a classic indicator that an uptrend could be approaching next.
"What remains is for the Kimchi Premium and Coinbase Premium to turn positive," he commented.
The Coinbase Premium represents the price differential between Coinbase's and Binance's BTC/USDT pairs and has remained predominantly negative throughout 2026.
When the premium is negative, it indicates weak demand from US markets, whereas the Kimchi Premium serves as a monitoring tool for the South Korean exchange sector.
Should demand make a comeback across all regions, Bitcoin would have an improved probability of returning to a sustainable upward trend.
CW recognized that the Kimchi Premium has already "decreased significantly" when compared to levels seen earlier in the week.
BTC begins its most recent "bottoming out" phase
As previously covered by Cointelegraph, the overall consensus points toward a macro bottoming phase currently unfolding for BTC/USD in the near term.
During the course of this week, the pair made contact with a crucial bear-market trend line represented by its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) — yet another essential component in the formation of a market bottom.
"Bitcoin has only just started deviating below the 200-week SMA," trader and analyst Rekt Capital emphasized to X followers on Friday.
"The significance of this is that historical Bear Market Bottoming out formations have started to develop via such deviations."
In earlier commentary, trader Leviathan characterized the current BTC price action as replicating the 2022 bear market "almost perfectly."